Mary Peltola holds a decisive lead in Alaska’s August 18 nonpartisan top-four primary for the U.S. Senate seat, with nearly all ballots counted showing her at roughly 49 percent compared to incumbent Dan S. Sullivan’s 42 percent and all other candidates below 3 percent. The results reflect Peltola’s strong crossover appeal in a state with a large independent electorate and her established record as the only Democrat to win statewide in recent cycles, while Sullivan consolidated most Republican support but faced vote-splitting attempts from a similarly named minor candidate whose eligibility challenge was resolved by the state supreme court. With certification due by August 31 and no remaining ballot batches large enough to reorder the top finishers, traders view Peltola as the near-certain top vote-getter advancing to the ranked-choice general election alongside Sullivan and two others. Late shifts remain possible only if widespread counting errors or successful candidate withdrawals alter the certified order before resolution.