Voters in Washington will decide Initiative 638 on November 3, 2026, which would require school and nonprofit athletic programs to bar biologically male students from female-designated teams and mandate healthcare-provider verification of biological sex through reproductive anatomy, genetics, or testosterone levels during routine physicals. The measure qualified after Let's Go Washington gathered sufficient signatures and the legislature took no action; supporters cite fairness and safety concerns for female athletes, bolstered by the June 2026 Supreme Court ruling upholding similar state restrictions, while opponents argue the verification process is overly intrusive and could affect broader participation. Active campaigns, funding from both sides, and internal polling showing divided but competitive support sustain the near-even trader consensus ahead of the general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated54% chance
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
54% chance
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Washington ballot initiative IL26-638 is a ballot measure scheduled to appear in the statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, which would restrict certain school sports based on an individual's biological sex.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if this ballot measure is approved as a result of the Washington statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”.
Subsequent litigation or any failure to implement the measure will have no impact on the resolution of this market.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of Washington, including the Washington Secretary of State (https://www.sos.wa.gov/). Voters in Washington will decide Initiative 638 on November 3, 2026, which would require school and nonprofit athletic programs to bar biologically male students from female-designated teams and mandate healthcare-provider verification of biological sex through reproductive anatomy, genetics, or testosterone levels during routine physicals. The measure qualified after Let's Go Washington gathered sufficient signatures and the legislature took no action; supporters cite fairness and safety concerns for female athletes, bolstered by the June 2026 Supreme Court ruling upholding similar state restrictions, while opponents argue the verification process is overly intrusive and could affect broader participation. Active campaigns, funding from both sides, and internal polling showing divided but competitive support sustain the near-even trader consensus ahead of the general election.
Washington ballot initiative IL26-638 is a ballot measure scheduled to appear in the statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, which would restrict certain school sports based on an individual's biological sex.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if this ballot measure is approved as a result of the Washington statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”.
Subsequent litigation or any failure to implement the measure will have no impact on the resolution of this market.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of Washington, including the Washington Secretary of State (https://www.sos.wa.gov/).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if this ballot measure is approved as a result of the Washington statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”.
Subsequent litigation or any failure to implement the measure will have no impact on the resolution of this market.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of Washington, including the Washington Secretary of State (https://www.sos.wa.gov/).
Market Opened: Jul 30, 2026, 3:41 PM ET
Volume
$401End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jul 30, 2026, 3:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Washington ballot initiative IL26-638 is a ballot measure scheduled to appear in the statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, which would restrict certain school sports based on an individual's biological sex.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if this ballot measure is approved as a result of the Washington statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”.
Subsequent litigation or any failure to implement the measure will have no impact on the resolution of this market.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of Washington, including the Washington Secretary of State (https://www.sos.wa.gov/). Voters in Washington will decide Initiative 638 on November 3, 2026, which would require school and nonprofit athletic programs to bar biologically male students from female-designated teams and mandate healthcare-provider verification of biological sex through reproductive anatomy, genetics, or testosterone levels during routine physicals. The measure qualified after Let's Go Washington gathered sufficient signatures and the legislature took no action; supporters cite fairness and safety concerns for female athletes, bolstered by the June 2026 Supreme Court ruling upholding similar state restrictions, while opponents argue the verification process is overly intrusive and could affect broader participation. Active campaigns, funding from both sides, and internal polling showing divided but competitive support sustain the near-even trader consensus ahead of the general election.
Washington ballot initiative IL26-638 is a ballot measure scheduled to appear in the statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, which would restrict certain school sports based on an individual's biological sex.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if this ballot measure is approved as a result of the Washington statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”.
Subsequent litigation or any failure to implement the measure will have no impact on the resolution of this market.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of Washington, including the Washington Secretary of State (https://www.sos.wa.gov/).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if this ballot measure is approved as a result of the Washington statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”.
Subsequent litigation or any failure to implement the measure will have no impact on the resolution of this market.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of Washington, including the Washington Secretary of State (https://www.sos.wa.gov/).
Volume
$401End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jul 30, 2026, 3:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Voters in Washington will decide Initiative 638 on November 3, 2026, which would require school and nonprofit athletic programs to bar biologically male students from female-designated teams and mandate healthcare-provider verification of biological sex through reproductive anatomy, genetics, or testosterone levels during routine physicals. The measure qualified after Let's Go Washington gathered sufficient signatures and the legislature took no action; supporters cite fairness and safety concerns for female athletes, bolstered by the June 2026 Supreme Court ruling upholding similar state restrictions, while opponents argue the verification process is overly intrusive and could affect broader participation. Active campaigns, funding from both sides, and internal polling showing divided but competitive support sustain the near-even trader consensus ahead of the general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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