**Seven Republican Senators are not seeking re-election to their seats in the 2026 cycle, a total that has held steady since the final spring announcements and aligns with the dominant market pricing.** The confirmed group consists of six retiring from public office—Mitch McConnell (Kentucky), Thom Tillis (North Carolina), Joni Ernst (Iowa), Cynthia Lummis (Wyoming), Steve Daines (Montana), and Alan Armstrong (Oklahoma, appointed)—plus Tommy Tuberville (Alabama), who is instead pursuing the governorship. This pace exceeds recent cycles and reflects typical drivers such as age, long tenure, and post-2024 shifts in Senate leadership and party dynamics. No additional Republican incumbents have announced departures in recent months, and the May/June primaries produced separate outcomes (including two renomination losses) without altering the count of voluntary exits. Filing deadlines have largely passed, leaving limited scope for further movement before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated7 87%
5 2.5%
9 2.5%
10 2.1%
$103,453 Vol.
$103,453 Vol.
Aug 30, 2026
<5
2%
5
2%
6
1%
7
87%
8
1%
9
2%
10
2%
11
<1%
12+
1%
7 87%
5 2.5%
9 2.5%
10 2.1%
$103,453 Vol.
$103,453 Vol.
Aug 30, 2026
<5
$22,895 Vol.
2%
5
$17,869 Vol.
2%
6
$27,272 Vol.
1%
7
$18,134 Vol.
87%
8
$4,648 Vol.
1%
9
$2,293 Vol.
2%
10
$1,931 Vol.
2%
11
$3,242 Vol.
<1%
12+
$5,169 Vol.
1%
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Seven Republican Senators are not seeking re-election to their seats in the 2026 cycle, a total that has held steady since the final spring announcements and aligns with the dominant market pricing.**
The confirmed group consists of six retiring from public office—Mitch McConnell (Kentucky), Thom Tillis (North Carolina), Joni Ernst (Iowa), Cynthia Lummis (Wyoming), Steve Daines (Montana), and Alan Armstrong (Oklahoma, appointed)—plus Tommy Tuberville (Alabama), who is instead pursuing the governorship. This pace exceeds recent cycles and reflects typical drivers such as age, long tenure, and post-2024 shifts in Senate leadership and party dynamics. No additional Republican incumbents have announced departures in recent months, and the May/June primaries produced separate outcomes (including two renomination losses) without altering the count of voluntary exits. Filing deadlines have largely passed, leaving limited scope for further movement before resolution.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Dec 12, 2025, 6:43 PM ET
Volume
$103,453End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 12, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Seven Republican Senators are not seeking re-election to their seats in the 2026 cycle, a total that has held steady since the final spring announcements and aligns with the dominant market pricing.**
The confirmed group consists of six retiring from public office—Mitch McConnell (Kentucky), Thom Tillis (North Carolina), Joni Ernst (Iowa), Cynthia Lummis (Wyoming), Steve Daines (Montana), and Alan Armstrong (Oklahoma, appointed)—plus Tommy Tuberville (Alabama), who is instead pursuing the governorship. This pace exceeds recent cycles and reflects typical drivers such as age, long tenure, and post-2024 shifts in Senate leadership and party dynamics. No additional Republican incumbents have announced departures in recent months, and the May/June primaries produced separate outcomes (including two renomination losses) without altering the count of voluntary exits. Filing deadlines have largely passed, leaving limited scope for further movement before resolution.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$103,453End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 12, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...**Seven Republican Senators are not seeking re-election to their seats in the 2026 cycle, a total that has held steady since the final spring announcements and aligns with the dominant market pricing.** The confirmed group consists of six retiring from public office—Mitch McConnell (Kentucky), Thom Tillis (North Carolina), Joni Ernst (Iowa), Cynthia Lummis (Wyoming), Steve Daines (Montana), and Alan Armstrong (Oklahoma, appointed)—plus Tommy Tuberville (Alabama), who is instead pursuing the governorship. This pace exceeds recent cycles and reflects typical drivers such as age, long tenure, and post-2024 shifts in Senate leadership and party dynamics. No additional Republican incumbents have announced departures in recent months, and the May/June primaries produced separate outcomes (including two renomination losses) without altering the count of voluntary exits. Filing deadlines have largely passed, leaving limited scope for further movement before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions