**Republican House departures for the 2026 cycle have reached 37 incumbents not seeking re-election as of early August, placing the total squarely in the 36–39 range that commands 93% market probability.** This elevated figure stems primarily from a wave of retirements among senior members combined with strategic exits by others pursuing Senate seats, governorships, or state attorney general positions, alongside several primary defeats and resignations. Redistricting in states such as Utah, California, and Florida, along with the typical pressures of a midterm cycle under unified Republican control of the White House, accelerated decisions by lawmakers weighing age, committee roles, or electoral vulnerability. The pace exceeds most recent cycles and aligns with historical patterns when the president’s party faces midterms. Late additional announcements or reversals by candidates who have not yet filed remain the main variables that could shift the count outside this band before state deadlines close.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many Republican House members not running in 2026?
How many Republican House members not running in 2026?
36–39 93.0%
40–43 3.7%
<24 1.3%
44+ 1.3%
$73,537 Vol.
$73,537 Vol.
Aug 30, 2026
<24
1%
24–27
1%
28–31
1%
32–35
<1%
36–39
93%
40–43
4%
44+
1%
36–39 93.0%
40–43 3.7%
<24 1.3%
44+ 1.3%
$73,537 Vol.
$73,537 Vol.
Aug 30, 2026
<24
$6,307 Vol.
1%
24–27
$20,188 Vol.
1%
28–31
$23,674 Vol.
1%
32–35
$6,463 Vol.
<1%
36–39
$8,695 Vol.
93%
40–43
$4,446 Vol.
4%
44+
$3,764 Vol.
1%
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Republican House departures for the 2026 cycle have reached 37 incumbents not seeking re-election as of early August, placing the total squarely in the 36–39 range that commands 93% market probability.** This elevated figure stems primarily from a wave of retirements among senior members combined with strategic exits by others pursuing Senate seats, governorships, or state attorney general positions, alongside several primary defeats and resignations. Redistricting in states such as Utah, California, and Florida, along with the typical pressures of a midterm cycle under unified Republican control of the White House, accelerated decisions by lawmakers weighing age, committee roles, or electoral vulnerability. The pace exceeds most recent cycles and aligns with historical patterns when the president’s party faces midterms. Late additional announcements or reversals by candidates who have not yet filed remain the main variables that could shift the count outside this band before state deadlines close.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ET
Volume
$73,537End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Republican House departures for the 2026 cycle have reached 37 incumbents not seeking re-election as of early August, placing the total squarely in the 36–39 range that commands 93% market probability.** This elevated figure stems primarily from a wave of retirements among senior members combined with strategic exits by others pursuing Senate seats, governorships, or state attorney general positions, alongside several primary defeats and resignations. Redistricting in states such as Utah, California, and Florida, along with the typical pressures of a midterm cycle under unified Republican control of the White House, accelerated decisions by lawmakers weighing age, committee roles, or electoral vulnerability. The pace exceeds most recent cycles and aligns with historical patterns when the president’s party faces midterms. Late additional announcements or reversals by candidates who have not yet filed remain the main variables that could shift the count outside this band before state deadlines close.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$73,537End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...**Republican House departures for the 2026 cycle have reached 37 incumbents not seeking re-election as of early August, placing the total squarely in the 36–39 range that commands 93% market probability.** This elevated figure stems primarily from a wave of retirements among senior members combined with strategic exits by others pursuing Senate seats, governorships, or state attorney general positions, alongside several primary defeats and resignations. Redistricting in states such as Utah, California, and Florida, along with the typical pressures of a midterm cycle under unified Republican control of the White House, accelerated decisions by lawmakers weighing age, committee roles, or electoral vulnerability. The pace exceeds most recent cycles and aligns with historical patterns when the president’s party faces midterms. Late additional announcements or reversals by candidates who have not yet filed remain the main variables that could shift the count outside this band before state deadlines close.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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