**As of late August 2026, 23 Democratic House incumbents have announced they will not seek re-election, placing the count squarely in the 20–23 range that commands roughly 70% of trader probability.** This total reflects a combination of outright retirements by long-serving members and departures to pursue Senate or gubernatorial bids. Senior lawmakers including Nancy Pelosi, Steny Hoyer, Jan Schakowsky, Danny Davis, Jerry Nadler, Nydia Velázquez, and Julia Brownley have cited age, a desire to pass the torch to newer leadership, and post-2024 generational pressures as factors. Additional exits stem from mid-decade redistricting in states such as Tennessee and Louisiana that altered district lines. Announcements have continued steadily through mid-2026 without a late surge, and with primary season underway in many states, few further Democratic departures are now anticipated before filing deadlines close the window. Historical midterm retirement patterns and the current tally support the market’s consensus around this narrow band.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated20–23 66.1%
24–27 21%
40+ 2.7%
<20 2.3%
$52,070 Vol.
$52,070 Vol.
Aug 30, 2026
<20
2%
20–23
70%
24–27
21%
28–31
1%
32–35
<1%
36–39
<1%
40+
3%
20–23 66.1%
24–27 21%
40+ 2.7%
<20 2.3%
$52,070 Vol.
$52,070 Vol.
Aug 30, 2026
<20
$18,045 Vol.
2%
20–23
$12,664 Vol.
70%
24–27
$10,881 Vol.
21%
28–31
$2,310 Vol.
1%
32–35
$4,787 Vol.
<1%
36–39
$1,496 Vol.
<1%
40+
$1,887 Vol.
3%
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**As of late August 2026, 23 Democratic House incumbents have announced they will not seek re-election, placing the count squarely in the 20–23 range that commands roughly 70% of trader probability.** This total reflects a combination of outright retirements by long-serving members and departures to pursue Senate or gubernatorial bids. Senior lawmakers including Nancy Pelosi, Steny Hoyer, Jan Schakowsky, Danny Davis, Jerry Nadler, Nydia Velázquez, and Julia Brownley have cited age, a desire to pass the torch to newer leadership, and post-2024 generational pressures as factors. Additional exits stem from mid-decade redistricting in states such as Tennessee and Louisiana that altered district lines. Announcements have continued steadily through mid-2026 without a late surge, and with primary season underway in many states, few further Democratic departures are now anticipated before filing deadlines close the window. Historical midterm retirement patterns and the current tally support the market’s consensus around this narrow band.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ET
Volume
$52,070End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**As of late August 2026, 23 Democratic House incumbents have announced they will not seek re-election, placing the count squarely in the 20–23 range that commands roughly 70% of trader probability.** This total reflects a combination of outright retirements by long-serving members and departures to pursue Senate or gubernatorial bids. Senior lawmakers including Nancy Pelosi, Steny Hoyer, Jan Schakowsky, Danny Davis, Jerry Nadler, Nydia Velázquez, and Julia Brownley have cited age, a desire to pass the torch to newer leadership, and post-2024 generational pressures as factors. Additional exits stem from mid-decade redistricting in states such as Tennessee and Louisiana that altered district lines. Announcements have continued steadily through mid-2026 without a late surge, and with primary season underway in many states, few further Democratic departures are now anticipated before filing deadlines close the window. Historical midterm retirement patterns and the current tally support the market’s consensus around this narrow band.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$52,070End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...**As of late August 2026, 23 Democratic House incumbents have announced they will not seek re-election, placing the count squarely in the 20–23 range that commands roughly 70% of trader probability.** This total reflects a combination of outright retirements by long-serving members and departures to pursue Senate or gubernatorial bids. Senior lawmakers including Nancy Pelosi, Steny Hoyer, Jan Schakowsky, Danny Davis, Jerry Nadler, Nydia Velázquez, and Julia Brownley have cited age, a desire to pass the torch to newer leadership, and post-2024 generational pressures as factors. Additional exits stem from mid-decade redistricting in states such as Tennessee and Louisiana that altered district lines. Announcements have continued steadily through mid-2026 without a late surge, and with primary season underway in many states, few further Democratic departures are now anticipated before filing deadlines close the window. Historical midterm retirement patterns and the current tally support the market’s consensus around this narrow band.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions