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icon for Where will 2026 rank among the highest U.S. domestic box office years on record?

Where will 2026 rank among the highest U.S. domestic box office years on record?

icon for Where will 2026 rank among the highest U.S. domestic box office years on record?

Where will 2026 rank among the highest U.S. domestic box office years on record?

7th-9th 39%

6th or higher 22%

13th-15th 6%

Below 15th 4.5%

Polymarket
NEW

7th-9th 39%

6th or higher 22%

13th-15th 6%

Below 15th 4.5%

Polymarket
NEW

6th or higher

$3,325 Vol.

22%

7th-9th

$267 Vol.

39%

10th-12th

$363 Vol.

38%

13th-15th

$217 Vol.

6%

Below 15th

$215 Vol.

4%

This market will resolve according to where 2026 ranks by total annual domestic box office gross among all years on record. The annual "Total Gross" figures found on the "Domestic Yearly Box Office" chart on Box Office Mojo (https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/) will be used to resolve this market once the 2026 value is final. 2026's rank will be determined against the figures for every other year listed on that same chart, such that the highest-grossing year on record ranks 1st, the second-highest ranks 2nd, and so on. This market will resolve to the bracket containing 2026's final rank. This market will resolve according to unadjusted nominal gross. Inflation-adjusted figures, ticket sales, and admissions will not be used for resolution purposes. This market will resolve according to the Box Office Mojo annual figures regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc., and regardless of whether a year's total includes grosses earned by films released in prior years. If 2026's final figure is exactly equal to that of another year, 2026 will be treated as holding the higher-ranking (lower-numbered) of the tied positions for the purposes of determining its bracket. If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.**Strong 2026 domestic performance through late August, paced by Spider-Man: Brand New Day’s record-setting run exceeding $869 million, The Odyssey near $550 million, and Toy Story 5 above $478 million, has pushed the year-to-date total past $7 billion—roughly 20% ahead of 2025 and on track for the strongest summer in years.** This momentum, fueled by franchise tentpoles and broad audience appeal, supports trader views that the full-year gross will likely land in the middle of the historical rankings rather than challenging the pre-pandemic peaks of 2018–2019 or the post-pandemic highs of 2023–2025. Remaining Q4 releases, including anticipated holdovers and holiday titles, introduce variability that keeps 7th–9th (38.5%) and 10th–12th (37.5%) nearly tied, with the outcome hinging on sustained legs from current hits versus typical seasonal slowdowns. Historical patterns show that even robust summers rarely overcome weaker fall and winter slates to crack the top six, while the current pace makes a slide below 13th unlikely absent major underperformance.

This market will resolve according to where 2026 ranks by total annual domestic box office gross among all years on record. The annual "Total Gross" figures found on the "Domestic Yearly Box Office" chart on Box Office Mojo (https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/) will be used to resolve this market once the 2026 value is final.

2026's rank will be determined against the figures for every other year listed on that same chart, such that the highest-grossing year on record ranks 1st, the second-highest ranks 2nd, and so on. This market will resolve to the bracket containing 2026's final rank.

This market will resolve according to unadjusted nominal gross. Inflation-adjusted figures, ticket sales, and admissions will not be used for resolution purposes.

This market will resolve according to the Box Office Mojo annual figures regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc., and regardless of whether a year's total includes grosses earned by films released in prior years.

If 2026's final figure is exactly equal to that of another year, 2026 will be treated as holding the higher-ranking (lower-numbered) of the tied positions for the purposes of determining its bracket.

If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Volume
$4,386
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 7, 2026, 4:49 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to where 2026 ranks by total annual domestic box office gross among all years on record. The annual "Total Gross" figures found on the "Domestic Yearly Box Office" chart on Box Office Mojo (https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/) will be used to resolve this market once the 2026 value is final. 2026's rank will be determined against the figures for every other year listed on that same chart, such that the highest-grossing year on record ranks 1st, the second-highest ranks 2nd, and so on. This market will resolve to the bracket containing 2026's final rank. This market will resolve according to unadjusted nominal gross. Inflation-adjusted figures, ticket sales, and admissions will not be used for resolution purposes. This market will resolve according to the Box Office Mojo annual figures regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc., and regardless of whether a year's total includes grosses earned by films released in prior years. If 2026's final figure is exactly equal to that of another year, 2026 will be treated as holding the higher-ranking (lower-numbered) of the tied positions for the purposes of determining its bracket. If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
This market will resolve according to where 2026 ranks by total annual domestic box office gross among all years on record. The annual "Total Gross" figures found on the "Domestic Yearly Box Office" chart on Box Office Mojo (https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/) will be used to resolve this market once the 2026 value is final. 2026's rank will be determined against the figures for every other year listed on that same chart, such that the highest-grossing year on record ranks 1st, the second-highest ranks 2nd, and so on. This market will resolve to the bracket containing 2026's final rank. This market will resolve according to unadjusted nominal gross. Inflation-adjusted figures, ticket sales, and admissions will not be used for resolution purposes. This market will resolve according to the Box Office Mojo annual figures regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc., and regardless of whether a year's total includes grosses earned by films released in prior years. If 2026's final figure is exactly equal to that of another year, 2026 will be treated as holding the higher-ranking (lower-numbered) of the tied positions for the purposes of determining its bracket. If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.**Strong 2026 domestic performance through late August, paced by Spider-Man: Brand New Day’s record-setting run exceeding $869 million, The Odyssey near $550 million, and Toy Story 5 above $478 million, has pushed the year-to-date total past $7 billion—roughly 20% ahead of 2025 and on track for the strongest summer in years.** This momentum, fueled by franchise tentpoles and broad audience appeal, supports trader views that the full-year gross will likely land in the middle of the historical rankings rather than challenging the pre-pandemic peaks of 2018–2019 or the post-pandemic highs of 2023–2025. Remaining Q4 releases, including anticipated holdovers and holiday titles, introduce variability that keeps 7th–9th (38.5%) and 10th–12th (37.5%) nearly tied, with the outcome hinging on sustained legs from current hits versus typical seasonal slowdowns. Historical patterns show that even robust summers rarely overcome weaker fall and winter slates to crack the top six, while the current pace makes a slide below 13th unlikely absent major underperformance.

This market will resolve according to where 2026 ranks by total annual domestic box office gross among all years on record. The annual "Total Gross" figures found on the "Domestic Yearly Box Office" chart on Box Office Mojo (https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/) will be used to resolve this market once the 2026 value is final.

2026's rank will be determined against the figures for every other year listed on that same chart, such that the highest-grossing year on record ranks 1st, the second-highest ranks 2nd, and so on. This market will resolve to the bracket containing 2026's final rank.

This market will resolve according to unadjusted nominal gross. Inflation-adjusted figures, ticket sales, and admissions will not be used for resolution purposes.

This market will resolve according to the Box Office Mojo annual figures regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc., and regardless of whether a year's total includes grosses earned by films released in prior years.

If 2026's final figure is exactly equal to that of another year, 2026 will be treated as holding the higher-ranking (lower-numbered) of the tied positions for the purposes of determining its bracket.

If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Volume
$4,386
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 7, 2026, 4:49 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to where 2026 ranks by total annual domestic box office gross among all years on record. The annual "Total Gross" figures found on the "Domestic Yearly Box Office" chart on Box Office Mojo (https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/) will be used to resolve this market once the 2026 value is final. 2026's rank will be determined against the figures for every other year listed on that same chart, such that the highest-grossing year on record ranks 1st, the second-highest ranks 2nd, and so on. This market will resolve to the bracket containing 2026's final rank. This market will resolve according to unadjusted nominal gross. Inflation-adjusted figures, ticket sales, and admissions will not be used for resolution purposes. This market will resolve according to the Box Office Mojo annual figures regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc., and regardless of whether a year's total includes grosses earned by films released in prior years. If 2026's final figure is exactly equal to that of another year, 2026 will be treated as holding the higher-ranking (lower-numbered) of the tied positions for the purposes of determining its bracket. If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Where will 2026 rank among the highest U.S. domestic box office years on record?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 5 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "7th-9th" at 39%, followed by "10th-12th" at 38%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 39¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 39% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Where will 2026 rank among the highest U.S. domestic box office years on record?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Aug 7, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Where will 2026 rank among the highest U.S. domestic box office years on record?," browse the 5 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Where will 2026 rank among the highest U.S. domestic box office years on record?" is "7th-9th" at 39%, meaning the market assigns a 39% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "10th-12th" at 38%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Where will 2026 rank among the highest U.S. domestic box office years on record?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.