Anthropic's recent Claude Opus 5, Fable 5, and Mythos 5 releases have established clear leads on LiveBench coding evaluations through superior performance on contamination-resistant tasks measuring code generation, agentic workflows, and reasoning. These models consistently post the highest category scores among frontier systems, reflecting iterative gains in large language model capabilities for practical programming benchmarks. Trader consensus at 98.5% implied probability reflects this sustained edge over OpenAI, Google, and Chinese labs as of late August 2026. A late-month benchmark refresh or unexpected new model release from competitors could still shift the outcome if it surpasses Anthropic's current coding results before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAnthropic 98.4%
OpenAI 1.1%
SpaceXAI 1.1%
Google <1%
$50,989 Vol.
$50,989 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
Anthropic
98%
OpenAI
1%
SpaceXAI
1%
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Baidu
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Amazon
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Thinky
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Tencent
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Meta
<1%
Anthropic 98.4%
OpenAI 1.1%
SpaceXAI 1.1%
Google <1%
$50,989 Vol.
$50,989 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
Anthropic
$24,527 Vol.
98%
OpenAI
$5,988 Vol.
1%
SpaceXAI
$3,260 Vol.
1%
$3,094 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$3,029 Vol.
<1%
Alibaba
$466 Vol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$1,760 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$471 Vol.
<1%
Nvidia
$818 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$672 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$421 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$589 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$441 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$1,196 Vol.
<1%
StepFun
$656 Vol.
<1%
Thinky
$1,212 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$366 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$465 Vol.
<1%
Tencent
$372 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$581 Vol.
<1%
Meta
$604 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Coding score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on August 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”Anthropic's recent Claude Opus 5, Fable 5, and Mythos 5 releases have established clear leads on LiveBench coding evaluations through superior performance on contamination-resistant tasks measuring code generation, agentic workflows, and reasoning. These models consistently post the highest category scores among frontier systems, reflecting iterative gains in large language model capabilities for practical programming benchmarks. Trader consensus at 98.5% implied probability reflects this sustained edge over OpenAI, Google, and Chinese labs as of late August 2026. A late-month benchmark refresh or unexpected new model release from competitors could still shift the outcome if it surpasses Anthropic's current coding results before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Coding score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on August 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Market Opened: Jul 29, 2026, 6:27 PM ET
Volume
$50,989End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 6:27 PM ETResolution Source
https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=CodingResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Coding score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on August 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”Anthropic's recent Claude Opus 5, Fable 5, and Mythos 5 releases have established clear leads on LiveBench coding evaluations through superior performance on contamination-resistant tasks measuring code generation, agentic workflows, and reasoning. These models consistently post the highest category scores among frontier systems, reflecting iterative gains in large language model capabilities for practical programming benchmarks. Trader consensus at 98.5% implied probability reflects this sustained edge over OpenAI, Google, and Chinese labs as of late August 2026. A late-month benchmark refresh or unexpected new model release from competitors could still shift the outcome if it surpasses Anthropic's current coding results before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Coding score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on August 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Volume
$50,989End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 6:27 PM ETResolution Source
https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=CodingResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic's recent Claude Opus 5, Fable 5, and Mythos 5 releases have established clear leads on LiveBench coding evaluations through superior performance on contamination-resistant tasks measuring code generation, agentic workflows, and reasoning. These models consistently post the highest category scores among frontier systems, reflecting iterative gains in large language model capabilities for practical programming benchmarks. Trader consensus at 98.5% implied probability reflects this sustained edge over OpenAI, Google, and Chinese labs as of late August 2026. A late-month benchmark refresh or unexpected new model release from competitors could still shift the outcome if it surpasses Anthropic's current coding results before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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