Anthropic leads LiveBench Coding market odds at 68.5% implied probability due to its Claude Opus 5 and Fable 5 models posting top scores on related coding benchmarks, including 96% on SWE-bench Verified and strong LiveBench category results through August 2026. These releases emphasize advanced reasoning and agentic coding capabilities that have outpaced OpenAI's GPT-5.6 Sol series (27.5%), which trails in several standardized evaluations despite competitive overall LiveBench performance. Chinese labs like Alibaba's Qwen and Z.ai show strength on LiveCodeBench but limited traction in the Polymarket, reflecting trader focus on frontier Western models. With resolution at end-October, upcoming model updates or benchmark refreshes remain key swing factors in this contested category.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAnthropic 69%
OpenAI 28%
Mistral 1.8%
Z.ai 1.7%
NEW
NEW
Oct 31, 2026
Anthropic
69%
OpenAI
28%
Mistral
2%
Z.ai
2%
DeepSeek
2%
2%
Meta
1%
SpaceXAI
1%
Amazon
1%
Nvidia
1%
Thinky
1%
MiniMax
1%
Xiaomi
1%
Baidu
1%
Meituan
<1%
Tencent
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
StepFun
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Anthropic 69%
OpenAI 28%
Mistral 1.8%
Z.ai 1.7%
NEW
NEW
Oct 31, 2026
Anthropic
$4,192 Vol.
69%
OpenAI
$600 Vol.
28%
Mistral
$165 Vol.
2%
Z.ai
$210 Vol.
2%
DeepSeek
$113 Vol.
2%
$138 Vol.
2%
Meta
$161 Vol.
1%
SpaceXAI
$155 Vol.
1%
Amazon
$174 Vol.
1%
Nvidia
$179 Vol.
1%
Thinky
$179 Vol.
1%
MiniMax
$164 Vol.
1%
Xiaomi
$182 Vol.
1%
Baidu
$144 Vol.
1%
Meituan
$113 Vol.
<1%
Tencent
$135 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$207 Vol.
<1%
StepFun
$138 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$133 Vol.
<1%
Alibaba
$133 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$153 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Coding score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”Anthropic leads LiveBench Coding market odds at 68.5% implied probability due to its Claude Opus 5 and Fable 5 models posting top scores on related coding benchmarks, including 96% on SWE-bench Verified and strong LiveBench category results through August 2026. These releases emphasize advanced reasoning and agentic coding capabilities that have outpaced OpenAI's GPT-5.6 Sol series (27.5%), which trails in several standardized evaluations despite competitive overall LiveBench performance. Chinese labs like Alibaba's Qwen and Z.ai show strength on LiveCodeBench but limited traction in the Polymarket, reflecting trader focus on frontier Western models. With resolution at end-October, upcoming model updates or benchmark refreshes remain key swing factors in this contested category.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Coding score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Market Opened: Aug 12, 2026, 8:05 PM ET
Volume
$7,761End Date
Oct 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 8:05 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Coding score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”Anthropic leads LiveBench Coding market odds at 68.5% implied probability due to its Claude Opus 5 and Fable 5 models posting top scores on related coding benchmarks, including 96% on SWE-bench Verified and strong LiveBench category results through August 2026. These releases emphasize advanced reasoning and agentic coding capabilities that have outpaced OpenAI's GPT-5.6 Sol series (27.5%), which trails in several standardized evaluations despite competitive overall LiveBench performance. Chinese labs like Alibaba's Qwen and Z.ai show strength on LiveCodeBench but limited traction in the Polymarket, reflecting trader focus on frontier Western models. With resolution at end-October, upcoming model updates or benchmark refreshes remain key swing factors in this contested category.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Coding score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Volume
$7,761End Date
Oct 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 8:05 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic leads LiveBench Coding market odds at 68.5% implied probability due to its Claude Opus 5 and Fable 5 models posting top scores on related coding benchmarks, including 96% on SWE-bench Verified and strong LiveBench category results through August 2026. These releases emphasize advanced reasoning and agentic coding capabilities that have outpaced OpenAI's GPT-5.6 Sol series (27.5%), which trails in several standardized evaluations despite competitive overall LiveBench performance. Chinese labs like Alibaba's Qwen and Z.ai show strength on LiveCodeBench but limited traction in the Polymarket, reflecting trader focus on frontier Western models. With resolution at end-October, upcoming model updates or benchmark refreshes remain key swing factors in this contested category.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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