Anthropic holds the strongest market-implied odds at 61.5% for the top LiveBench overall score by end of October 2026, driven by consistent leadership from its Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5 large language models on recent dynamic snapshots. These models have posted top or near-top results around 83% across categories like reasoning, coding, and knowledge work, outpacing OpenAI's GPT-5.6 Sol and o3-mini variants in several August 2026 evaluations. OpenAI's competitive GPT-5.x releases and agentic updates keep it at 29% but trail in trader consensus amid benchmark volatility. Other labs like Google, Alibaba, and Moonshot remain below 1% due to lower verified scores and fewer frontier releases. Key upcoming catalysts include any new model drops or LiveBench refreshes before the October resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAnthropic 62%
OpenAI 29%
Alibaba <1%
SpaceXAI <1%
$11,085 Vol.
$11,085 Vol.
Oct 31, 2026
Anthropic
62%
OpenAI
29%
Alibaba
1%
SpaceXAI
1%
DeepSeek
1%
ByteDance
1%
1%
Moonshot
1%
Nvidia
1%
MiniMax
1%
Mistral
1%
Meituan
1%
StepFun
1%
Xiaomi
1%
Amazon
1%
Meta
1%
Baidu
1%
Tencent
1%
Z.ai
1%
Thinky
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Anthropic 62%
OpenAI 29%
Alibaba <1%
SpaceXAI <1%
$11,085 Vol.
$11,085 Vol.
Oct 31, 2026
Anthropic
$5,770 Vol.
62%
OpenAI
$1,273 Vol.
29%
Alibaba
$133 Vol.
1%
SpaceXAI
$190 Vol.
1%
DeepSeek
$182 Vol.
1%
ByteDance
$240 Vol.
1%
$158 Vol.
1%
Moonshot
$222 Vol.
1%
Nvidia
$245 Vol.
1%
MiniMax
$229 Vol.
1%
Mistral
$250 Vol.
1%
Meituan
$182 Vol.
1%
StepFun
$192 Vol.
1%
Xiaomi
$192 Vol.
1%
Amazon
$261 Vol.
1%
Meta
$229 Vol.
1%
Baidu
$241 Vol.
1%
Tencent
$240 Vol.
1%
Z.ai
$190 Vol.
1%
Thinky
$212 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$255 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”Anthropic holds the strongest market-implied odds at 61.5% for the top LiveBench overall score by end of October 2026, driven by consistent leadership from its Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5 large language models on recent dynamic snapshots. These models have posted top or near-top results around 83% across categories like reasoning, coding, and knowledge work, outpacing OpenAI's GPT-5.6 Sol and o3-mini variants in several August 2026 evaluations. OpenAI's competitive GPT-5.x releases and agentic updates keep it at 29% but trail in trader consensus amid benchmark volatility. Other labs like Google, Alibaba, and Moonshot remain below 1% due to lower verified scores and fewer frontier releases. Key upcoming catalysts include any new model drops or LiveBench refreshes before the October resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Market Opened: Aug 12, 2026, 8:04 PM ET
Volume
$11,085End Date
Oct 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 8:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”Anthropic holds the strongest market-implied odds at 61.5% for the top LiveBench overall score by end of October 2026, driven by consistent leadership from its Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5 large language models on recent dynamic snapshots. These models have posted top or near-top results around 83% across categories like reasoning, coding, and knowledge work, outpacing OpenAI's GPT-5.6 Sol and o3-mini variants in several August 2026 evaluations. OpenAI's competitive GPT-5.x releases and agentic updates keep it at 29% but trail in trader consensus amid benchmark volatility. Other labs like Google, Alibaba, and Moonshot remain below 1% due to lower verified scores and fewer frontier releases. Key upcoming catalysts include any new model drops or LiveBench refreshes before the October resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Volume
$11,085End Date
Oct 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 8:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic holds the strongest market-implied odds at 61.5% for the top LiveBench overall score by end of October 2026, driven by consistent leadership from its Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5 large language models on recent dynamic snapshots. These models have posted top or near-top results around 83% across categories like reasoning, coding, and knowledge work, outpacing OpenAI's GPT-5.6 Sol and o3-mini variants in several August 2026 evaluations. OpenAI's competitive GPT-5.x releases and agentic updates keep it at 29% but trail in trader consensus amid benchmark volatility. Other labs like Google, Alibaba, and Moonshot remain below 1% due to lower verified scores and fewer frontier releases. Key upcoming catalysts include any new model drops or LiveBench refreshes before the October resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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