Anthropic leads market-implied odds at 69% for the top LiveBench overall score by end-September 2026 because its latest Claude models, including Fable 5 and Mythos 5, currently post the strongest average scores across the benchmark’s contamination-resistant categories in recent snapshots. These releases have demonstrated superior results in reasoning, coding, and instruction following relative to OpenAI’s o3-mini and GPT-5 variants, which sit at 32% implied probability despite competitive showings on select leaderboards. Traders appear to discount near-term shifts from other labs given Anthropic’s recent cadence of high-performing updates and the benchmark’s dynamic question set. With resolution less than a month away, any final-week model drop from OpenAI or Google could narrow the gap, though current trader consensus prices in limited upside for challengers.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAnthropic 69%
OpenAI 32%
Google <1%
Z.ai <1%
$36,109 Vol.
$36,109 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
Anthropic
69%
OpenAI
32%
1%
Z.ai
1%
Mistral
<1%
Meta
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
SpaceXAI
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Amazon
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
Thinky
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Tencent
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Anthropic 69%
OpenAI 32%
Google <1%
Z.ai <1%
$36,109 Vol.
$36,109 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
Anthropic
$9,962 Vol.
69%
OpenAI
$8,331 Vol.
32%
$1,468 Vol.
1%
Z.ai
$1,582 Vol.
1%
Mistral
$1,614 Vol.
<1%
Meta
$741 Vol.
<1%
Alibaba
$929 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$597 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$558 Vol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$901 Vol.
<1%
SpaceXAI
$1,738 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$612 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$686 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$543 Vol.
<1%
Nvidia
$790 Vol.
<1%
Thinky
$648 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$1,208 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$1,020 Vol.
<1%
Tencent
$663 Vol.
<1%
StepFun
$488 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$1,031 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on September 30, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”Anthropic leads market-implied odds at 69% for the top LiveBench overall score by end-September 2026 because its latest Claude models, including Fable 5 and Mythos 5, currently post the strongest average scores across the benchmark’s contamination-resistant categories in recent snapshots. These releases have demonstrated superior results in reasoning, coding, and instruction following relative to OpenAI’s o3-mini and GPT-5 variants, which sit at 32% implied probability despite competitive showings on select leaderboards. Traders appear to discount near-term shifts from other labs given Anthropic’s recent cadence of high-performing updates and the benchmark’s dynamic question set. With resolution less than a month away, any final-week model drop from OpenAI or Google could narrow the gap, though current trader consensus prices in limited upside for challengers.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on September 30, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Market Opened: Jul 29, 2026, 6:13 PM ET
Volume
$36,109End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 6:13 PM ETResolution Source
https://livebench.ai/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on September 30, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”Anthropic leads market-implied odds at 69% for the top LiveBench overall score by end-September 2026 because its latest Claude models, including Fable 5 and Mythos 5, currently post the strongest average scores across the benchmark’s contamination-resistant categories in recent snapshots. These releases have demonstrated superior results in reasoning, coding, and instruction following relative to OpenAI’s o3-mini and GPT-5 variants, which sit at 32% implied probability despite competitive showings on select leaderboards. Traders appear to discount near-term shifts from other labs given Anthropic’s recent cadence of high-performing updates and the benchmark’s dynamic question set. With resolution less than a month away, any final-week model drop from OpenAI or Google could narrow the gap, though current trader consensus prices in limited upside for challengers.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on September 30, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Volume
$36,109End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 6:13 PM ETResolution Source
https://livebench.ai/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic leads market-implied odds at 69% for the top LiveBench overall score by end-September 2026 because its latest Claude models, including Fable 5 and Mythos 5, currently post the strongest average scores across the benchmark’s contamination-resistant categories in recent snapshots. These releases have demonstrated superior results in reasoning, coding, and instruction following relative to OpenAI’s o3-mini and GPT-5 variants, which sit at 32% implied probability despite competitive showings on select leaderboards. Traders appear to discount near-term shifts from other labs given Anthropic’s recent cadence of high-performing updates and the benchmark’s dynamic question set. With resolution less than a month away, any final-week model drop from OpenAI or Google could narrow the gap, though current trader consensus prices in limited upside for challengers.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions