Anthropic's recent Claude model releases, including variants like Fable 5 and Opus 5 series, have driven the 96.9% market-implied probability by posting leading scores on LiveBench snapshots through August 2026. These large language models have shown strong results across reasoning, coding, and agentic tasks on the contamination-resistant benchmark, outpacing OpenAI's o3-mini and GPT-5 variants in multiple independent evaluations. Trader consensus reflects this demonstrated edge and the short window before end-of-August resolution. A last-minute model update from OpenAI, Google, or a Chinese lab, or an official LiveBench refresh that elevates another entry, remains the primary scenario that could narrow or reverse the lead.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAnthropic 96.8%
OpenAI 1.0%
StepFun <1%
Z.ai <1%
$26,543 Vol.
$26,543 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
Anthropic
97%
OpenAI
1%
StepFun
1%
Z.ai
1%
Amazon
1%
Meta
1%
SpaceXAI
1%
DeepSeek
1%
Nvidia
1%
Tencent
1%
Meituan
<1%
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Thinky
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Anthropic 96.8%
OpenAI 1.0%
StepFun <1%
Z.ai <1%
$26,543 Vol.
$26,543 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
Anthropic
$9,997 Vol.
97%
OpenAI
$2,140 Vol.
1%
StepFun
$776 Vol.
1%
Z.ai
$802 Vol.
1%
Amazon
$747 Vol.
1%
Meta
$759 Vol.
1%
SpaceXAI
$1,035 Vol.
1%
DeepSeek
$1,112 Vol.
1%
Nvidia
$723 Vol.
1%
Tencent
$778 Vol.
1%
Meituan
$744 Vol.
<1%
$695 Vol.
<1%
Alibaba
$695 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$661 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$755 Vol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$604 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$781 Vol.
<1%
Thinky
$589 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$852 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$758 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$541 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on August 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”Anthropic's recent Claude model releases, including variants like Fable 5 and Opus 5 series, have driven the 96.9% market-implied probability by posting leading scores on LiveBench snapshots through August 2026. These large language models have shown strong results across reasoning, coding, and agentic tasks on the contamination-resistant benchmark, outpacing OpenAI's o3-mini and GPT-5 variants in multiple independent evaluations. Trader consensus reflects this demonstrated edge and the short window before end-of-August resolution. A last-minute model update from OpenAI, Google, or a Chinese lab, or an official LiveBench refresh that elevates another entry, remains the primary scenario that could narrow or reverse the lead.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on August 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Market Opened: Jul 29, 2026, 6:17 PM ET
Volume
$26,543End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 6:17 PM ETResolution Source
https://livebench.ai/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on August 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”Anthropic's recent Claude model releases, including variants like Fable 5 and Opus 5 series, have driven the 96.9% market-implied probability by posting leading scores on LiveBench snapshots through August 2026. These large language models have shown strong results across reasoning, coding, and agentic tasks on the contamination-resistant benchmark, outpacing OpenAI's o3-mini and GPT-5 variants in multiple independent evaluations. Trader consensus reflects this demonstrated edge and the short window before end-of-August resolution. A last-minute model update from OpenAI, Google, or a Chinese lab, or an official LiveBench refresh that elevates another entry, remains the primary scenario that could narrow or reverse the lead.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on August 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Volume
$26,543End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 6:17 PM ETResolution Source
https://livebench.ai/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic's recent Claude model releases, including variants like Fable 5 and Opus 5 series, have driven the 96.9% market-implied probability by posting leading scores on LiveBench snapshots through August 2026. These large language models have shown strong results across reasoning, coding, and agentic tasks on the contamination-resistant benchmark, outpacing OpenAI's o3-mini and GPT-5 variants in multiple independent evaluations. Trader consensus reflects this demonstrated edge and the short window before end-of-August resolution. A last-minute model update from OpenAI, Google, or a Chinese lab, or an official LiveBench refresh that elevates another entry, remains the primary scenario that could narrow or reverse the lead.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions