OpenAI holds a slight edge in trader consensus at 54.5% implied probability for the top LiveBench Mathematics model by end of October, reflecting its recent o-series and GPT-5 variants' strong performance on dynamic, contamination-resistant benchmarks that test genuine mathematical reasoning across algebra, geometry, and advanced problem sets. Closely matched competitors including Anthropic's Claude Opus models and multiple others at 50% highlight a tight race driven by rapid iteration cycles at major labs, where OpenAI's scaling advantages and frequent releases compete against specialized gains from Anthropic in reasoning depth and Chinese developers like Z.ai or Moonshot on targeted math benchmarks such as AIME. Key catalysts ahead include expected model updates through September and October that could shift category-specific scores, with traders weighing OpenAI's demonstrated live leaderboard leadership against the risk of breakthroughs from rivals narrowing gaps in frontier math capabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWhich company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) end of October?
Which company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) end of October?
OpenAI 55%
Anthropic 46%
Z.ai <1%
Google <1%
$11,627 Vol.
$11,627 Vol.
Oct 31, 2026
OpenAI
55%
Anthropic
46%
Z.ai
1%
1%
SpaceXAI
1%
Microsoft
1%
DeepSeek
1%
Amazon
1%
ByteDance
1%
Thinky
1%
MiniMax
1%
StepFun
1%
Meta
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Tencent
<1%
OpenAI 55%
Anthropic 46%
Z.ai <1%
Google <1%
$11,627 Vol.
$11,627 Vol.
Oct 31, 2026
OpenAI
$1,583 Vol.
55%
Anthropic
$1,945 Vol.
46%
Z.ai
$735 Vol.
1%
$484 Vol.
1%
SpaceXAI
$479 Vol.
1%
Microsoft
$476 Vol.
1%
DeepSeek
$461 Vol.
1%
Amazon
$477 Vol.
1%
ByteDance
$436 Vol.
1%
Thinky
$436 Vol.
1%
MiniMax
$436 Vol.
1%
StepFun
$441 Vol.
1%
Meta
$447 Vol.
<1%
Alibaba
$436 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$456 Vol.
<1%
Nvidia
$352 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$286 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$390 Vol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$253 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$283 Vol.
<1%
Tencent
$339 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Mathematics score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Mathematics” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Mathematics, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Mathematics,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”OpenAI holds a slight edge in trader consensus at 54.5% implied probability for the top LiveBench Mathematics model by end of October, reflecting its recent o-series and GPT-5 variants' strong performance on dynamic, contamination-resistant benchmarks that test genuine mathematical reasoning across algebra, geometry, and advanced problem sets. Closely matched competitors including Anthropic's Claude Opus models and multiple others at 50% highlight a tight race driven by rapid iteration cycles at major labs, where OpenAI's scaling advantages and frequent releases compete against specialized gains from Anthropic in reasoning depth and Chinese developers like Z.ai or Moonshot on targeted math benchmarks such as AIME. Key catalysts ahead include expected model updates through September and October that could shift category-specific scores, with traders weighing OpenAI's demonstrated live leaderboard leadership against the risk of breakthroughs from rivals narrowing gaps in frontier math capabilities.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Mathematics score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Mathematics” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Mathematics, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Mathematics,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Results from the “Mathematics” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Mathematics, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Mathematics,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Market Opened: Aug 12, 2026, 8:04 PM ET
Volume
$11,627End Date
Oct 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 8:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Mathematics score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Mathematics” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Mathematics, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Mathematics,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”OpenAI holds a slight edge in trader consensus at 54.5% implied probability for the top LiveBench Mathematics model by end of October, reflecting its recent o-series and GPT-5 variants' strong performance on dynamic, contamination-resistant benchmarks that test genuine mathematical reasoning across algebra, geometry, and advanced problem sets. Closely matched competitors including Anthropic's Claude Opus models and multiple others at 50% highlight a tight race driven by rapid iteration cycles at major labs, where OpenAI's scaling advantages and frequent releases compete against specialized gains from Anthropic in reasoning depth and Chinese developers like Z.ai or Moonshot on targeted math benchmarks such as AIME. Key catalysts ahead include expected model updates through September and October that could shift category-specific scores, with traders weighing OpenAI's demonstrated live leaderboard leadership against the risk of breakthroughs from rivals narrowing gaps in frontier math capabilities.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Mathematics score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Mathematics” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Mathematics, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Mathematics,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Results from the “Mathematics” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Mathematics, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Mathematics,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Volume
$11,627End Date
Oct 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 8:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...OpenAI holds a slight edge in trader consensus at 54.5% implied probability for the top LiveBench Mathematics model by end of October, reflecting its recent o-series and GPT-5 variants' strong performance on dynamic, contamination-resistant benchmarks that test genuine mathematical reasoning across algebra, geometry, and advanced problem sets. Closely matched competitors including Anthropic's Claude Opus models and multiple others at 50% highlight a tight race driven by rapid iteration cycles at major labs, where OpenAI's scaling advantages and frequent releases compete against specialized gains from Anthropic in reasoning depth and Chinese developers like Z.ai or Moonshot on targeted math benchmarks such as AIME. Key catalysts ahead include expected model updates through September and October that could shift category-specific scores, with traders weighing OpenAI's demonstrated live leaderboard leadership against the risk of breakthroughs from rivals narrowing gaps in frontier math capabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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