OpenAI maintains overwhelming market-implied odds near 97% for the top LiveBench Mathematics score at month-end due to its recent frontier large language models, including o-series and GPT-5 variants, posting leading results on the benchmark’s dynamic, contamination-resistant math tasks that emphasize competition-level problems in algebra, geometry, and calculus. LiveBench’s frequent question refreshes have consistently rewarded OpenAI’s scaling investments and reasoning-focused training, outpacing competitors on verified snapshots as of late August. Other labs trail significantly in trader consensus, with Anthropic and Chinese providers like Moonshot or Alibaba at minimal implied probabilities. A late-model release or undisclosed update from a rival could still shift the leaderboard before the August 31 resolution, though the current gap makes such an outcome improbable without new evidence.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedOpenAI 97.0%
Anthropic 3.3%
Mistral <1%
Meituan <1%
$23,991 Vol.
$23,991 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
OpenAI
97%
Anthropic
3%
Mistral
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Tencent
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Meta
<1%
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
SpaceXAI
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Amazon
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
Thinky
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
OpenAI 97.0%
Anthropic 3.3%
Mistral <1%
Meituan <1%
$23,991 Vol.
$23,991 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
OpenAI
$7,453 Vol.
97%
Anthropic
$4,084 Vol.
3%
Mistral
$382 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$616 Vol.
<1%
Tencent
$376 Vol.
<1%
StepFun
$446 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$671 Vol.
<1%
Meta
$769 Vol.
<1%
$691 Vol.
<1%
Alibaba
$569 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$1,238 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$582 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$902 Vol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$582 Vol.
<1%
SpaceXAI
$682 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$568 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$488 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$936 Vol.
<1%
Nvidia
$781 Vol.
<1%
Thinky
$712 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$463 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Mathematics score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on August 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Mathematics” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Mathematics, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Mathematics,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”OpenAI maintains overwhelming market-implied odds near 97% for the top LiveBench Mathematics score at month-end due to its recent frontier large language models, including o-series and GPT-5 variants, posting leading results on the benchmark’s dynamic, contamination-resistant math tasks that emphasize competition-level problems in algebra, geometry, and calculus. LiveBench’s frequent question refreshes have consistently rewarded OpenAI’s scaling investments and reasoning-focused training, outpacing competitors on verified snapshots as of late August. Other labs trail significantly in trader consensus, with Anthropic and Chinese providers like Moonshot or Alibaba at minimal implied probabilities. A late-model release or undisclosed update from a rival could still shift the leaderboard before the August 31 resolution, though the current gap makes such an outcome improbable without new evidence.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Mathematics score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on August 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Mathematics” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Mathematics, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Mathematics,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Results from the “Mathematics” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Mathematics, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Mathematics,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Market Opened: Jul 29, 2026, 6:27 PM ET
Volume
$23,991End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 6:27 PM ETResolution Source
https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=MathematicsResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Mathematics score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on August 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Mathematics” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Mathematics, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Mathematics,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”OpenAI maintains overwhelming market-implied odds near 97% for the top LiveBench Mathematics score at month-end due to its recent frontier large language models, including o-series and GPT-5 variants, posting leading results on the benchmark’s dynamic, contamination-resistant math tasks that emphasize competition-level problems in algebra, geometry, and calculus. LiveBench’s frequent question refreshes have consistently rewarded OpenAI’s scaling investments and reasoning-focused training, outpacing competitors on verified snapshots as of late August. Other labs trail significantly in trader consensus, with Anthropic and Chinese providers like Moonshot or Alibaba at minimal implied probabilities. A late-model release or undisclosed update from a rival could still shift the leaderboard before the August 31 resolution, though the current gap makes such an outcome improbable without new evidence.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Mathematics score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on August 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Mathematics” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Mathematics, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Mathematics,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Results from the “Mathematics” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Mathematics, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Mathematics,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Volume
$23,991End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 6:27 PM ETResolution Source
https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=MathematicsResolver
0x69c47De9D...OpenAI maintains overwhelming market-implied odds near 97% for the top LiveBench Mathematics score at month-end due to its recent frontier large language models, including o-series and GPT-5 variants, posting leading results on the benchmark’s dynamic, contamination-resistant math tasks that emphasize competition-level problems in algebra, geometry, and calculus. LiveBench’s frequent question refreshes have consistently rewarded OpenAI’s scaling investments and reasoning-focused training, outpacing competitors on verified snapshots as of late August. Other labs trail significantly in trader consensus, with Anthropic and Chinese providers like Moonshot or Alibaba at minimal implied probabilities. A late-model release or undisclosed update from a rival could still shift the leaderboard before the August 31 resolution, though the current gap makes such an outcome improbable without new evidence.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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