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Geopolitics·Trump

Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?

icon for Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?
Geopolitics·Trump

Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?

Jan 1, 2027

Jan 1, 2027

$386,784 Vol.

Dec 31, 2026
Polymarket

$386,784 Vol.

Polymarket

Mexico

$2,819 Vol.

16%

India

$69,282 Vol.

17%

Israel

$505 Vol.

16%

Canada

$21,581 Vol.

14%

Indonesia

$19,597 Vol.

13%

Vietnam

$6,733 Vol.

13%

Brazil

$4,677 Vol.

13%

Australia

$6,239 Vol.

13%

South Korea

$59,657 Vol.

12%

Taiwan

$33,761 Vol.

12%

Argentina

$22,643 Vol.

12%

United Kingdom

$564 Vol.

12%

South Africa

$494 Vol.

12%

Japan

$17,163 Vol.

9%

Russia

$2,262 Vol.

9%

Pakistan

$105,460 Vol.

8%

European Union

$13,349 Vol.

7%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a free trade agreement with the specified country or entity becomes law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This includes both agreements that become law through Senate ratification and Presidential approval, or through the enactment of a Congressional-Executive Agreement signed into law by the President. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.The Trump administration’s reciprocal tariff framework, imposed starting in April 2025 and adjusted through executive orders, has driven a wave of bilateral Agreements on Reciprocal Trade and investment frameworks by pressuring partners to offer tariff reductions, agricultural market access, critical minerals commitments, and U.S. investments. Multiple deals were finalized or advanced in 2025–2026 with the UK, Japan, EU, Indonesia, Malaysia, Cambodia, South Korea, Ecuador, Taiwan, and others, often tied to specific purchase targets or regulatory alignments. Ongoing talks with Thailand aim for conclusion in early September 2026, while USMCA review negotiations with Mexico continue in September and Canada discussions remain stalled after tariff pauses. These dynamics, alongside scheduled diplomatic and legislative timelines through year-end 2026, shape trader assessments of additional outcomes before the 2027 cutoff.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a free trade agreement with the specified country or entity becomes law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This includes both agreements that become law through Senate ratification and Presidential approval, or through the enactment of a Congressional-Executive Agreement signed into law by the President.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$386,784
End Date
Jan 1, 2027
Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 5:02 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a free trade agreement with the specified country or entity becomes law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This includes both agreements that become law through Senate ratification and Presidential approval, or through the enactment of a Congressional-Executive Agreement signed into law by the President. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a free trade agreement with the specified country or entity becomes law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This includes both agreements that become law through Senate ratification and Presidential approval, or through the enactment of a Congressional-Executive Agreement signed into law by the President. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.The Trump administration’s reciprocal tariff framework, imposed starting in April 2025 and adjusted through executive orders, has driven a wave of bilateral Agreements on Reciprocal Trade and investment frameworks by pressuring partners to offer tariff reductions, agricultural market access, critical minerals commitments, and U.S. investments. Multiple deals were finalized or advanced in 2025–2026 with the UK, Japan, EU, Indonesia, Malaysia, Cambodia, South Korea, Ecuador, Taiwan, and others, often tied to specific purchase targets or regulatory alignments. Ongoing talks with Thailand aim for conclusion in early September 2026, while USMCA review negotiations with Mexico continue in September and Canada discussions remain stalled after tariff pauses. These dynamics, alongside scheduled diplomatic and legislative timelines through year-end 2026, shape trader assessments of additional outcomes before the 2027 cutoff.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a free trade agreement with the specified country or entity becomes law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This includes both agreements that become law through Senate ratification and Presidential approval, or through the enactment of a Congressional-Executive Agreement signed into law by the President.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$386,784
End Date
Jan 1, 2027
Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 5:02 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a free trade agreement with the specified country or entity becomes law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This includes both agreements that become law through Senate ratification and Presidential approval, or through the enactment of a Congressional-Executive Agreement signed into law by the President. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 17 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "India" at 17%, followed by "Mexico" at 16%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 17¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 17% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?" has generated $386.8K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 5, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?," browse the 17 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?" is "India" at 17%, meaning the market assigns a 17% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Mexico" at 16%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.