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Politics·Sweden

Which parties will be in next Swedish Government?

icon for Which parties will be in next Swedish Government?
Politics·Sweden

Which parties will be in next Swedish Government?

$13,474 Vol.

Jan 31, 2027
Polymarket

$13,474 Vol.

Polymarket
icon for Swedish Social Democratic Party (S)

Swedish Social Democratic Party (S)

$2,662 Vol.

92%

icon for Green Party (MP)

Green Party (MP)

$1,168 Vol.

80%

icon for Left Party (V)

Left Party (V)

$1,468 Vol.

56%

icon for Centre Party (C)

Centre Party (C)

$760 Vol.

69%

icon for Christian Democrats (KD)

Christian Democrats (KD)

$1,683 Vol.

26%

icon for Liberals (L)

Liberals (L)

$1,670 Vol.

24%

icon for Sweden Democrats (SD)

Sweden Democrats (SD)

$3,854 Vol.

10%

icon for Citizens' Coalition (MED)

Citizens' Coalition (MED)

$163 Vol.

2%

icon for Moderate Party (M)

Moderate Party (M)

$45 Vol.

46%

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Swedish government formed after the 2026 Swedish parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may resolve once the composition of the first Swedish government following the 2026 parliamentary elections is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office. A party will only be considered part of the coalition if it provides at least one cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a cabinet post will not qualify. If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Government of Sweden and the Riksdag.Recent polling shows the centre-left opposition bloc, anchored by the Social Democrats under Magdalena Andersson, holding a narrowing lead of around 4.7 percentage points over the incumbent Tidö parties (Moderates, Christian Democrats, Liberals) plus Sweden Democrats support, with the gap halved since June ahead of the September 13 election. The Liberals remain well below the 4% parliamentary threshold, while the Centre Party’s seat projection positions it as a potential kingmaker in post-election negotiations. Campaign focus on cost of living, crime, immigration, security and energy has coincided with incremental gains for the government side. Sweden Democrats have conditioned future cooperation on cabinet seats, and neither bloc currently projects a clear majority without cross-bloc arrangements involving the Centre or others. Early voting is underway, with final results and coalition talks set to determine government composition.

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Swedish government formed after the 2026 Swedish parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market may resolve once the composition of the first Swedish government following the 2026 parliamentary elections is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office.

A party will only be considered part of the coalition if it provides at least one cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a cabinet post will not qualify.

If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Government of Sweden and the Riksdag.
Volume
$13,474
End Date
Jan 31, 2027
Market Opened
Aug 19, 2026, 3:51 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Swedish government formed after the 2026 Swedish parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may resolve once the composition of the first Swedish government following the 2026 parliamentary elections is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office. A party will only be considered part of the coalition if it provides at least one cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a cabinet post will not qualify. If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Government of Sweden and the Riksdag.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Swedish government formed after the 2026 Swedish parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may resolve once the composition of the first Swedish government following the 2026 parliamentary elections is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office. A party will only be considered part of the coalition if it provides at least one cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a cabinet post will not qualify. If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Government of Sweden and the Riksdag.Recent polling shows the centre-left opposition bloc, anchored by the Social Democrats under Magdalena Andersson, holding a narrowing lead of around 4.7 percentage points over the incumbent Tidö parties (Moderates, Christian Democrats, Liberals) plus Sweden Democrats support, with the gap halved since June ahead of the September 13 election. The Liberals remain well below the 4% parliamentary threshold, while the Centre Party’s seat projection positions it as a potential kingmaker in post-election negotiations. Campaign focus on cost of living, crime, immigration, security and energy has coincided with incremental gains for the government side. Sweden Democrats have conditioned future cooperation on cabinet seats, and neither bloc currently projects a clear majority without cross-bloc arrangements involving the Centre or others. Early voting is underway, with final results and coalition talks set to determine government composition.

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Swedish government formed after the 2026 Swedish parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market may resolve once the composition of the first Swedish government following the 2026 parliamentary elections is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office.

A party will only be considered part of the coalition if it provides at least one cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a cabinet post will not qualify.

If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Government of Sweden and the Riksdag.
Volume
$13,474
End Date
Jan 31, 2027
Market Opened
Aug 19, 2026, 3:51 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Swedish government formed after the 2026 Swedish parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may resolve once the composition of the first Swedish government following the 2026 parliamentary elections is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office. A party will only be considered part of the coalition if it provides at least one cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a cabinet post will not qualify. If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Government of Sweden and the Riksdag.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Which parties will be in next Swedish Government?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 9 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Swedish Social Democratic Party (S)" at 92%, followed by "Green Party (MP)" at 80%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 92¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 92% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Which parties will be in next Swedish Government?" has generated $13.5K in total trading volume since the market launched on Aug 19, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Which parties will be in next Swedish Government?," browse the 9 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Which parties will be in next Swedish Government?" is "Swedish Social Democratic Party (S)" at 92%, meaning the market assigns a 92% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Green Party (MP)" at 80%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Which parties will be in next Swedish Government?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.