Trader sentiment in this multi-outcome market centers on high-profile figures from prior U.S. administrations or recent controversies facing active federal investigations, grand jury subpoenas, or proceedings that could lead to custody by December 31, 2026. Leading names such as John Brennan and James Comey draw volume amid probes into intelligence matters and past official conduct, while Anthony Fauci’s July 2026 Senate testimony—marked by repeated Fifth Amendment invocations—highlights exposure to contempt or related charges. Mahmoud Khalil and other activists remain in focus due to prior ICE detentions and ongoing immigration enforcement actions. International cases, including Benjamin Netanyahu’s corruption trials in Israel and proceedings involving South Korean or Spanish figures, add parallel resolution paths. Short remaining timeline, scheduled congressional oversight, and court milestones through late 2026 represent the main variables that could shift implied probabilities before year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWho will be arrested before 2027?
Who will be arrested before 2027?
$398,230 Vol.
Anthony Fauci
11%
John Brennan
18%
José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero
13%
Adam Schiff
3%
Barack Obama
2%
James Comey
6%
Mahmoud Khalil
30%
James Clapper
11%
Letitia James
13%
Hillary Clinton
2%
Bill Clinton
1%
Loretta Lynch
11%
Susan Rice
9%
Candace Owens
7%
Gavin Newsom
3%
Benjamin Netanyahu
5%
John Kerry
2%
Pam Bondi
2%
Tom Homan
12%
Kash Patel
2%
Brandon Johnson
13%
Lisa Cook
8%
Lee Jun-seok
11%
Joe Biden
2%
$398,230 Vol.
Anthony Fauci
$157,459 Vol.
11%
John Brennan
$21,722 Vol.
18%
José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero
$22,998 Vol.
13%
Adam Schiff
$16,471 Vol.
3%
Barack Obama
$29,262 Vol.
2%
James Comey
$9,716 Vol.
6%
Mahmoud Khalil
$1,308 Vol.
30%
James Clapper
$6,754 Vol.
11%
Letitia James
$2,908 Vol.
13%
Hillary Clinton
$25,144 Vol.
2%
Bill Clinton
$2,614 Vol.
1%
Loretta Lynch
$2,376 Vol.
11%
Susan Rice
$304 Vol.
9%
Candace Owens
$268 Vol.
7%
Gavin Newsom
$39,084 Vol.
3%
Benjamin Netanyahu
$1,929 Vol.
5%
John Kerry
$501 Vol.
2%
Pam Bondi
$2,027 Vol.
2%
Tom Homan
$40,051 Vol.
12%
Kash Patel
$564 Vol.
2%
Brandon Johnson
$3,197 Vol.
13%
Lisa Cook
$3,399 Vol.
8%
Lee Jun-seok
$794 Vol.
11%
Joe Biden
$7,381 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader sentiment in this multi-outcome market centers on high-profile figures from prior U.S. administrations or recent controversies facing active federal investigations, grand jury subpoenas, or proceedings that could lead to custody by December 31, 2026. Leading names such as John Brennan and James Comey draw volume amid probes into intelligence matters and past official conduct, while Anthony Fauci’s July 2026 Senate testimony—marked by repeated Fifth Amendment invocations—highlights exposure to contempt or related charges. Mahmoud Khalil and other activists remain in focus due to prior ICE detentions and ongoing immigration enforcement actions. International cases, including Benjamin Netanyahu’s corruption trials in Israel and proceedings involving South Korean or Spanish figures, add parallel resolution paths. Short remaining timeline, scheduled congressional oversight, and court milestones through late 2026 represent the main variables that could shift implied probabilities before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Apr 30, 2026, 5:49 PM ET
Volume
$398,230Market Opened
Apr 30, 2026, 5:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader sentiment in this multi-outcome market centers on high-profile figures from prior U.S. administrations or recent controversies facing active federal investigations, grand jury subpoenas, or proceedings that could lead to custody by December 31, 2026. Leading names such as John Brennan and James Comey draw volume amid probes into intelligence matters and past official conduct, while Anthony Fauci’s July 2026 Senate testimony—marked by repeated Fifth Amendment invocations—highlights exposure to contempt or related charges. Mahmoud Khalil and other activists remain in focus due to prior ICE detentions and ongoing immigration enforcement actions. International cases, including Benjamin Netanyahu’s corruption trials in Israel and proceedings involving South Korean or Spanish figures, add parallel resolution paths. Short remaining timeline, scheduled congressional oversight, and court milestones through late 2026 represent the main variables that could shift implied probabilities before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$398,230Market Opened
Apr 30, 2026, 5:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader sentiment in this multi-outcome market centers on high-profile figures from prior U.S. administrations or recent controversies facing active federal investigations, grand jury subpoenas, or proceedings that could lead to custody by December 31, 2026. Leading names such as John Brennan and James Comey draw volume amid probes into intelligence matters and past official conduct, while Anthony Fauci’s July 2026 Senate testimony—marked by repeated Fifth Amendment invocations—highlights exposure to contempt or related charges. Mahmoud Khalil and other activists remain in focus due to prior ICE detentions and ongoing immigration enforcement actions. International cases, including Benjamin Netanyahu’s corruption trials in Israel and proceedings involving South Korean or Spanish figures, add parallel resolution paths. Short remaining timeline, scheduled congressional oversight, and court milestones through late 2026 represent the main variables that could shift implied probabilities before year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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