**Recent high-profile cabinet departures—including Kristi Noem, Pam Bondi, and Lori Chavez-DeRemer earlier in 2026, plus Tulsi Gabbard—combined with ongoing White House staff exits ahead of the midterms have shaped trader views on further near-term turnover.** The leading outcome of no additional cabinet departures before 2027 reflects the pace of prior changes and the relative stability of remaining confirmed secretaries amid legislative and foreign policy pressures. Among named individuals, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. holds the highest probability due to sustained policy focus and departmental reorganizations at HHS. Scott Bessent, Kelly Loeffler, Susie Wiles, and Doug Burgum follow, tied to their visible roles and occasional mentions in turnover discussions. Broader factors include anticipated congressional oversight, economic conditions, and the Iran conflict, though no confirmed signals point to imminent cabinet-level exits as of late August.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNone before 2027 48.1%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. 15.8%
Scott Bessent 8.5%
Susie Wiles 6.5%
$42,477 Vol.
$42,477 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
None before 2027
48%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
16%
Scott Bessent
9%
Susie Wiles
6%
Doug Burgum
6%
Chris Wright
4%
Russell T. Vought
4%
Pete Hegseth
4%
Howard Lutnick
3%
Sean Duffy
2%
Scott Turner
2%
Brooke Rollins
2%
J.D. Vance
2%
Lee Zeldin
2%
John Ratcliffe
2%
Jamieson Greer
2%
Marco Rubio
1%
Kelly Loeffler
7%
Linda McMahon
1%
Mike Waltz
1%
Doug Collins
<1%
None before 2027 48.1%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. 15.8%
Scott Bessent 8.5%
Susie Wiles 6.5%
$42,477 Vol.
$42,477 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
None before 2027
$8,046 Vol.
48%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
$18,401 Vol.
16%
Scott Bessent
$1,712 Vol.
9%
Susie Wiles
$3,362 Vol.
6%
Doug Burgum
$799 Vol.
6%
Chris Wright
$730 Vol.
4%
Russell T. Vought
$473 Vol.
4%
Pete Hegseth
$939 Vol.
4%
Howard Lutnick
$830 Vol.
3%
Sean Duffy
$632 Vol.
2%
Scott Turner
$351 Vol.
2%
Brooke Rollins
$670 Vol.
2%
J.D. Vance
$581 Vol.
2%
Lee Zeldin
$636 Vol.
2%
John Ratcliffe
$544 Vol.
2%
Jamieson Greer
$478 Vol.
2%
Marco Rubio
$498 Vol.
1%
Kelly Loeffler
$776 Vol.
7%
Linda McMahon
$847 Vol.
1%
Mike Waltz
$646 Vol.
1%
Doug Collins
$526 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.**Recent high-profile cabinet departures—including Kristi Noem, Pam Bondi, and Lori Chavez-DeRemer earlier in 2026, plus Tulsi Gabbard—combined with ongoing White House staff exits ahead of the midterms have shaped trader views on further near-term turnover.** The leading outcome of no additional cabinet departures before 2027 reflects the pace of prior changes and the relative stability of remaining confirmed secretaries amid legislative and foreign policy pressures. Among named individuals, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. holds the highest probability due to sustained policy focus and departmental reorganizations at HHS. Scott Bessent, Kelly Loeffler, Susie Wiles, and Doug Burgum follow, tied to their visible roles and occasional mentions in turnover discussions. Broader factors include anticipated congressional oversight, economic conditions, and the Iran conflict, though no confirmed signals point to imminent cabinet-level exits as of late August.
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
Market Opened: May 22, 2026, 2:38 PM ET
Volume
$42,477End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
May 22, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.**Recent high-profile cabinet departures—including Kristi Noem, Pam Bondi, and Lori Chavez-DeRemer earlier in 2026, plus Tulsi Gabbard—combined with ongoing White House staff exits ahead of the midterms have shaped trader views on further near-term turnover.** The leading outcome of no additional cabinet departures before 2027 reflects the pace of prior changes and the relative stability of remaining confirmed secretaries amid legislative and foreign policy pressures. Among named individuals, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. holds the highest probability due to sustained policy focus and departmental reorganizations at HHS. Scott Bessent, Kelly Loeffler, Susie Wiles, and Doug Burgum follow, tied to their visible roles and occasional mentions in turnover discussions. Broader factors include anticipated congressional oversight, economic conditions, and the Iran conflict, though no confirmed signals point to imminent cabinet-level exits as of late August.
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
Volume
$42,477End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
May 22, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Recent high-profile cabinet departures—including Kristi Noem, Pam Bondi, and Lori Chavez-DeRemer earlier in 2026, plus Tulsi Gabbard—combined with ongoing White House staff exits ahead of the midterms have shaped trader views on further near-term turnover.** The leading outcome of no additional cabinet departures before 2027 reflects the pace of prior changes and the relative stability of remaining confirmed secretaries amid legislative and foreign policy pressures. Among named individuals, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. holds the highest probability due to sustained policy focus and departmental reorganizations at HHS. Scott Bessent, Kelly Loeffler, Susie Wiles, and Doug Burgum follow, tied to their visible roles and occasional mentions in turnover discussions. Broader factors include anticipated congressional oversight, economic conditions, and the Iran conflict, though no confirmed signals point to imminent cabinet-level exits as of late August.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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