Iran's Islamic Republic maintains a legal framework under Sharia law and the Islamic Penal Code that criminalizes same-sex conduct with penalties up to execution, while the Guardian Council and Supreme Leader's authority ensure alignment with traditional interpretations of marriage. No legislative proposals, parliamentary debates, or policy shifts toward recognizing same-sex unions have emerged in recent years, consistent with ongoing enforcement and reports of persecution. This structural incompatibility with the constitution underpins traders' 97.9% consensus on "No" by the December 31, 2026 resolution date. Only an unforeseen regime transformation or constitutional overhaul before year-end could alter the trajectory, though such developments remain improbable given current institutional controls.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated2% chance
$74,540 Vol.
$74,540 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
2% chance
$74,540 Vol.
$74,540 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the government of Iran legally recognizes marriage between two people of the same sex anywhere within Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legal recognition refers to any law, constitutional amendment, or binding judicial decision that allows two adults of the same sex to marry with the same legal status as opposite-sex marriages under Iranian law.
Recognition must apply within Iran’s legal system and permit same-sex couples to enter a legally valid marriage recognized by Iranian civil or religious authorities. The recognition must be in force by the listed deadline.
The legalization of civil unions, domestic partnerships, or other forms of limited recognition that do not grant the legal status of marriage will not qualify.
Recognition of marriages performed abroad without permitting such marriages to be performed within Iran will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Iran's Islamic Republic maintains a legal framework under Sharia law and the Islamic Penal Code that criminalizes same-sex conduct with penalties up to execution, while the Guardian Council and Supreme Leader's authority ensure alignment with traditional interpretations of marriage. No legislative proposals, parliamentary debates, or policy shifts toward recognizing same-sex unions have emerged in recent years, consistent with ongoing enforcement and reports of persecution. This structural incompatibility with the constitution underpins traders' 97.9% consensus on "No" by the December 31, 2026 resolution date. Only an unforeseen regime transformation or constitutional overhaul before year-end could alter the trajectory, though such developments remain improbable given current institutional controls.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the government of Iran legally recognizes marriage between two people of the same sex anywhere within Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legal recognition refers to any law, constitutional amendment, or binding judicial decision that allows two adults of the same sex to marry with the same legal status as opposite-sex marriages under Iranian law.
Recognition must apply within Iran’s legal system and permit same-sex couples to enter a legally valid marriage recognized by Iranian civil or religious authorities. The recognition must be in force by the listed deadline.
The legalization of civil unions, domestic partnerships, or other forms of limited recognition that do not grant the legal status of marriage will not qualify.
Recognition of marriages performed abroad without permitting such marriages to be performed within Iran will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Legal recognition refers to any law, constitutional amendment, or binding judicial decision that allows two adults of the same sex to marry with the same legal status as opposite-sex marriages under Iranian law.
Recognition must apply within Iran’s legal system and permit same-sex couples to enter a legally valid marriage recognized by Iranian civil or religious authorities. The recognition must be in force by the listed deadline.
The legalization of civil unions, domestic partnerships, or other forms of limited recognition that do not grant the legal status of marriage will not qualify.
Recognition of marriages performed abroad without permitting such marriages to be performed within Iran will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Mar 17, 2026, 8:48 PM ET
Volume
$74,540End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 17, 2026, 8:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the government of Iran legally recognizes marriage between two people of the same sex anywhere within Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legal recognition refers to any law, constitutional amendment, or binding judicial decision that allows two adults of the same sex to marry with the same legal status as opposite-sex marriages under Iranian law.
Recognition must apply within Iran’s legal system and permit same-sex couples to enter a legally valid marriage recognized by Iranian civil or religious authorities. The recognition must be in force by the listed deadline.
The legalization of civil unions, domestic partnerships, or other forms of limited recognition that do not grant the legal status of marriage will not qualify.
Recognition of marriages performed abroad without permitting such marriages to be performed within Iran will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Iran's Islamic Republic maintains a legal framework under Sharia law and the Islamic Penal Code that criminalizes same-sex conduct with penalties up to execution, while the Guardian Council and Supreme Leader's authority ensure alignment with traditional interpretations of marriage. No legislative proposals, parliamentary debates, or policy shifts toward recognizing same-sex unions have emerged in recent years, consistent with ongoing enforcement and reports of persecution. This structural incompatibility with the constitution underpins traders' 97.9% consensus on "No" by the December 31, 2026 resolution date. Only an unforeseen regime transformation or constitutional overhaul before year-end could alter the trajectory, though such developments remain improbable given current institutional controls.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the government of Iran legally recognizes marriage between two people of the same sex anywhere within Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legal recognition refers to any law, constitutional amendment, or binding judicial decision that allows two adults of the same sex to marry with the same legal status as opposite-sex marriages under Iranian law.
Recognition must apply within Iran’s legal system and permit same-sex couples to enter a legally valid marriage recognized by Iranian civil or religious authorities. The recognition must be in force by the listed deadline.
The legalization of civil unions, domestic partnerships, or other forms of limited recognition that do not grant the legal status of marriage will not qualify.
Recognition of marriages performed abroad without permitting such marriages to be performed within Iran will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Legal recognition refers to any law, constitutional amendment, or binding judicial decision that allows two adults of the same sex to marry with the same legal status as opposite-sex marriages under Iranian law.
Recognition must apply within Iran’s legal system and permit same-sex couples to enter a legally valid marriage recognized by Iranian civil or religious authorities. The recognition must be in force by the listed deadline.
The legalization of civil unions, domestic partnerships, or other forms of limited recognition that do not grant the legal status of marriage will not qualify.
Recognition of marriages performed abroad without permitting such marriages to be performed within Iran will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$74,540End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 17, 2026, 8:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran's Islamic Republic maintains a legal framework under Sharia law and the Islamic Penal Code that criminalizes same-sex conduct with penalties up to execution, while the Guardian Council and Supreme Leader's authority ensure alignment with traditional interpretations of marriage. No legislative proposals, parliamentary debates, or policy shifts toward recognizing same-sex unions have emerged in recent years, consistent with ongoing enforcement and reports of persecution. This structural incompatibility with the constitution underpins traders' 97.9% consensus on "No" by the December 31, 2026 resolution date. Only an unforeseen regime transformation or constitutional overhaul before year-end could alter the trajectory, though such developments remain improbable given current institutional controls.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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