María Corina Machado remains outside Venezuela following failed return attempts in late June 2026 after major earthquakes, when the interim government under Delcy Rodríguez closed airspace and blocked flights from Panama and Curaçao. U.S. officials declined to back her plans at the time, citing risks of confrontation with security forces and concerns over her lack of valid travel documents. She has publicly committed to returning before year-end to resume political activity and has rejected participation in U.S.-backed dialogue between opposition figures and regime representatives. Key variables include any shift in U.S. policy toward the transition process, progress on amnesty or entry permissions through ongoing talks, and potential escalation around scheduled September negotiations or domestic political pressure.