Mojtaba Khamenei succeeded his father Ayatollah Ali Khamenei as Iran’s Supreme Leader in March 2026 following the elder Khamenei’s assassination in February US-Israeli strikes that also killed several family members and senior officials. He has remained entirely out of public view since, with no verified contemporaneous images, videos, or direct meetings reported by most senior figures, including the foreign minister. Iranian officials attribute the seclusion to security precautions amid ongoing threats, while stating he remains in full health after a reported August meeting with President Masoud Pezeshkian. Israeli sources have claimed he left the country, possibly for treatment of reported injuries or protection, though these reports remain unconfirmed and contested. The Assembly of Experts selection, IRGC influence, and any verifiable movement or medical developments within the resolution window shape trader assessments of departure risk.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$109,021 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
August 31
<1%
October 31
4%
December 31
11%
$109,021 Vol.
August 31
$66,959 Vol.
<1%
October 31
$90 Vol.
4%
December 31
$71 Vol.
11%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei was outside Iran at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Both the presence outside Iran and its confirmation must occur between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A presence outside Iran occurring prior to market creation will not qualify, regardless of when it is confirmed.
Mojtaba Khamenei need not depart Iran during the market window, nor remain outside Iran at the time of confirmation. If he was already outside Iran at market creation, his confirmed presence outside Iran during the window will qualify; likewise, a confirmed presence during the window will qualify even if he has since returned to Iran.
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If no qualifying confirmation occurs by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Mojtaba Khamenei succeeded his father Ayatollah Ali Khamenei as Iran’s Supreme Leader in March 2026 following the elder Khamenei’s assassination in February US-Israeli strikes that also killed several family members and senior officials. He has remained entirely out of public view since, with no verified contemporaneous images, videos, or direct meetings reported by most senior figures, including the foreign minister. Iranian officials attribute the seclusion to security precautions amid ongoing threats, while stating he remains in full health after a reported August meeting with President Masoud Pezeshkian. Israeli sources have claimed he left the country, possibly for treatment of reported injuries or protection, though these reports remain unconfirmed and contested. The Assembly of Experts selection, IRGC influence, and any verifiable movement or medical developments within the resolution window shape trader assessments of departure risk.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei was outside Iran at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Both the presence outside Iran and its confirmation must occur between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A presence outside Iran occurring prior to market creation will not qualify, regardless of when it is confirmed.
Mojtaba Khamenei need not depart Iran during the market window, nor remain outside Iran at the time of confirmation. If he was already outside Iran at market creation, his confirmed presence outside Iran during the window will qualify; likewise, a confirmed presence during the window will qualify even if he has since returned to Iran.
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If no qualifying confirmation occurs by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Both the presence outside Iran and its confirmation must occur between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A presence outside Iran occurring prior to market creation will not qualify, regardless of when it is confirmed.
Mojtaba Khamenei need not depart Iran during the market window, nor remain outside Iran at the time of confirmation. If he was already outside Iran at market creation, his confirmed presence outside Iran during the window will qualify; likewise, a confirmed presence during the window will qualify even if he has since returned to Iran.
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If no qualifying confirmation occurs by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jul 19, 2026, 10:24 PM ET
Volume
$109,021End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jul 19, 2026, 10:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei was outside Iran at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Both the presence outside Iran and its confirmation must occur between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A presence outside Iran occurring prior to market creation will not qualify, regardless of when it is confirmed.
Mojtaba Khamenei need not depart Iran during the market window, nor remain outside Iran at the time of confirmation. If he was already outside Iran at market creation, his confirmed presence outside Iran during the window will qualify; likewise, a confirmed presence during the window will qualify even if he has since returned to Iran.
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If no qualifying confirmation occurs by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Mojtaba Khamenei succeeded his father Ayatollah Ali Khamenei as Iran’s Supreme Leader in March 2026 following the elder Khamenei’s assassination in February US-Israeli strikes that also killed several family members and senior officials. He has remained entirely out of public view since, with no verified contemporaneous images, videos, or direct meetings reported by most senior figures, including the foreign minister. Iranian officials attribute the seclusion to security precautions amid ongoing threats, while stating he remains in full health after a reported August meeting with President Masoud Pezeshkian. Israeli sources have claimed he left the country, possibly for treatment of reported injuries or protection, though these reports remain unconfirmed and contested. The Assembly of Experts selection, IRGC influence, and any verifiable movement or medical developments within the resolution window shape trader assessments of departure risk.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei was outside Iran at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Both the presence outside Iran and its confirmation must occur between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A presence outside Iran occurring prior to market creation will not qualify, regardless of when it is confirmed.
Mojtaba Khamenei need not depart Iran during the market window, nor remain outside Iran at the time of confirmation. If he was already outside Iran at market creation, his confirmed presence outside Iran during the window will qualify; likewise, a confirmed presence during the window will qualify even if he has since returned to Iran.
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If no qualifying confirmation occurs by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Both the presence outside Iran and its confirmation must occur between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A presence outside Iran occurring prior to market creation will not qualify, regardless of when it is confirmed.
Mojtaba Khamenei need not depart Iran during the market window, nor remain outside Iran at the time of confirmation. If he was already outside Iran at market creation, his confirmed presence outside Iran during the window will qualify; likewise, a confirmed presence during the window will qualify even if he has since returned to Iran.
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If no qualifying confirmation occurs by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$109,021End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jul 19, 2026, 10:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Mojtaba Khamenei succeeded his father Ayatollah Ali Khamenei as Iran’s Supreme Leader in March 2026 following the elder Khamenei’s assassination in February US-Israeli strikes that also killed several family members and senior officials. He has remained entirely out of public view since, with no verified contemporaneous images, videos, or direct meetings reported by most senior figures, including the foreign minister. Iranian officials attribute the seclusion to security precautions amid ongoing threats, while stating he remains in full health after a reported August meeting with President Masoud Pezeshkian. Israeli sources have claimed he left the country, possibly for treatment of reported injuries or protection, though these reports remain unconfirmed and contested. The Assembly of Experts selection, IRGC influence, and any verifiable movement or medical developments within the resolution window shape trader assessments of departure risk.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions