Russian forces are advancing toward Kostyantynivka in Donetsk Oblast as part of efforts to reach the Slovyansk-Druzhkivka-Kramatorsk area, with recent infiltrations by small infantry groups reported north of the Dovha Balka–Illinivka road and around nearby settlements such as Illinivka and Stepanivka. Ukrainian forces previously liberated the village in May 2026, but Russian pressure has intensified through incremental gains and outflanking maneuvers southwest of Kostyantynivka. Trader assessments of capture timing reflect the pace of these localized operations, Ukrainian defensive adjustments including command restructuring, and broader Russian resource allocation in the Donbas theater. Scheduled Ukrainian reinforcements or shifts in Russian glide-bomb and drone strikes could alter the immediate trajectory.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWill Russia capture Dovha Balka by...?
Will Russia capture Dovha Balka by...?
$120,102 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
September 30
29%
$120,102 Vol.
September 30
$32,185 Vol.
29%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection Tsentralna volytsia x Peremohy volytsia at 48.492703° N, 37.607318° E in Dovha Balka, Donetsk Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET.
The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Dovha+Balka+intersection+zoom.png
Intersection Location in Dovha Balka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Dovha+Balka+intersection.png
Dovha Balka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Dovha+Balka.png
Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/Sp1hCRWLBnNtSwTk8
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.Russian forces are advancing toward Kostyantynivka in Donetsk Oblast as part of efforts to reach the Slovyansk-Druzhkivka-Kramatorsk area, with recent infiltrations by small infantry groups reported north of the Dovha Balka–Illinivka road and around nearby settlements such as Illinivka and Stepanivka. Ukrainian forces previously liberated the village in May 2026, but Russian pressure has intensified through incremental gains and outflanking maneuvers southwest of Kostyantynivka. Trader assessments of capture timing reflect the pace of these localized operations, Ukrainian defensive adjustments including command restructuring, and broader Russian resource allocation in the Donbas theater. Scheduled Ukrainian reinforcements or shifts in Russian glide-bomb and drone strikes could alter the immediate trajectory.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection Tsentralna volytsia x Peremohy volytsia at 48.492703° N, 37.607318° E in Dovha Balka, Donetsk Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET.
The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Dovha+Balka+intersection+zoom.png
Intersection Location in Dovha Balka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Dovha+Balka+intersection.png
Dovha Balka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Dovha+Balka.png
Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/Sp1hCRWLBnNtSwTk8
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Dovha+Balka+intersection+zoom.png
Intersection Location in Dovha Balka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Dovha+Balka+intersection.png
Dovha Balka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Dovha+Balka.png
Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/Sp1hCRWLBnNtSwTk8
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jun 24, 2026, 9:49 PM ET
Volume
$120,102End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Jun 24, 2026, 9:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection Tsentralna volytsia x Peremohy volytsia at 48.492703° N, 37.607318° E in Dovha Balka, Donetsk Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET.
The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Dovha+Balka+intersection+zoom.png
Intersection Location in Dovha Balka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Dovha+Balka+intersection.png
Dovha Balka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Dovha+Balka.png
Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/Sp1hCRWLBnNtSwTk8
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.Russian forces are advancing toward Kostyantynivka in Donetsk Oblast as part of efforts to reach the Slovyansk-Druzhkivka-Kramatorsk area, with recent infiltrations by small infantry groups reported north of the Dovha Balka–Illinivka road and around nearby settlements such as Illinivka and Stepanivka. Ukrainian forces previously liberated the village in May 2026, but Russian pressure has intensified through incremental gains and outflanking maneuvers southwest of Kostyantynivka. Trader assessments of capture timing reflect the pace of these localized operations, Ukrainian defensive adjustments including command restructuring, and broader Russian resource allocation in the Donbas theater. Scheduled Ukrainian reinforcements or shifts in Russian glide-bomb and drone strikes could alter the immediate trajectory.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection Tsentralna volytsia x Peremohy volytsia at 48.492703° N, 37.607318° E in Dovha Balka, Donetsk Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET.
The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Dovha+Balka+intersection+zoom.png
Intersection Location in Dovha Balka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Dovha+Balka+intersection.png
Dovha Balka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Dovha+Balka.png
Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/Sp1hCRWLBnNtSwTk8
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Dovha+Balka+intersection+zoom.png
Intersection Location in Dovha Balka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Dovha+Balka+intersection.png
Dovha Balka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Dovha+Balka.png
Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/Sp1hCRWLBnNtSwTk8
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Volume
$120,102End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Jun 24, 2026, 9:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Russian forces are advancing toward Kostyantynivka in Donetsk Oblast as part of efforts to reach the Slovyansk-Druzhkivka-Kramatorsk area, with recent infiltrations by small infantry groups reported north of the Dovha Balka–Illinivka road and around nearby settlements such as Illinivka and Stepanivka. Ukrainian forces previously liberated the village in May 2026, but Russian pressure has intensified through incremental gains and outflanking maneuvers southwest of Kostyantynivka. Trader assessments of capture timing reflect the pace of these localized operations, Ukrainian defensive adjustments including command restructuring, and broader Russian resource allocation in the Donbas theater. Scheduled Ukrainian reinforcements or shifts in Russian glide-bomb and drone strikes could alter the immediate trajectory.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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