Iran maintains administrative and military control over Abu Musa Island, which it has held since 1971 despite UAE sovereignty claims inherited from Sharjah. Recent US strikes in July 2026 targeted Iranian Revolutionary Guard positions, missile sites, and coastal defenses on Abu Musa and nearby islands as part of operations around the Strait of Hormuz, degrading some infrastructure without altering on-the-ground authority. Iran has responded with further missile deployments, housing construction for resettlement, and military drills while rejecting GCC and UAE calls for negotiations or ICJ referral. Diplomatic statements from Gulf states continue to label the islands occupied, but no verified shift in primary governmental or military control has occurred. Resolution by August 31, 2026, would require a major change in effective administration not supported by current developments.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAbu Musa Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
Abu Musa Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
$93,571 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
August 31
<1%
September 30
1%
$93,571 Vol.
August 31
$86,637 Vol.
<1%
September 30
$266 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Abu Musa Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
“No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Abu Musa Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Abu Musa Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Iran maintains administrative and military control over Abu Musa Island, which it has held since 1971 despite UAE sovereignty claims inherited from Sharjah. Recent US strikes in July 2026 targeted Iranian Revolutionary Guard positions, missile sites, and coastal defenses on Abu Musa and nearby islands as part of operations around the Strait of Hormuz, degrading some infrastructure without altering on-the-ground authority. Iran has responded with further missile deployments, housing construction for resettlement, and military drills while rejecting GCC and UAE calls for negotiations or ICJ referral. Diplomatic statements from Gulf states continue to label the islands occupied, but no verified shift in primary governmental or military control has occurred. Resolution by August 31, 2026, would require a major change in effective administration not supported by current developments.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Abu Musa Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
“No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Abu Musa Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Abu Musa Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
“No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Abu Musa Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Abu Musa Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jul 20, 2026, 9:13 PM ET
Volume
$93,571End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 20, 2026, 9:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Abu Musa Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
“No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Abu Musa Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Abu Musa Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Iran maintains administrative and military control over Abu Musa Island, which it has held since 1971 despite UAE sovereignty claims inherited from Sharjah. Recent US strikes in July 2026 targeted Iranian Revolutionary Guard positions, missile sites, and coastal defenses on Abu Musa and nearby islands as part of operations around the Strait of Hormuz, degrading some infrastructure without altering on-the-ground authority. Iran has responded with further missile deployments, housing construction for resettlement, and military drills while rejecting GCC and UAE calls for negotiations or ICJ referral. Diplomatic statements from Gulf states continue to label the islands occupied, but no verified shift in primary governmental or military control has occurred. Resolution by August 31, 2026, would require a major change in effective administration not supported by current developments.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Abu Musa Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
“No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Abu Musa Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Abu Musa Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
“No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Abu Musa Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Abu Musa Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$93,571End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 20, 2026, 9:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran maintains administrative and military control over Abu Musa Island, which it has held since 1971 despite UAE sovereignty claims inherited from Sharjah. Recent US strikes in July 2026 targeted Iranian Revolutionary Guard positions, missile sites, and coastal defenses on Abu Musa and nearby islands as part of operations around the Strait of Hormuz, degrading some infrastructure without altering on-the-ground authority. Iran has responded with further missile deployments, housing construction for resettlement, and military drills while rejecting GCC and UAE calls for negotiations or ICJ referral. Diplomatic statements from Gulf states continue to label the islands occupied, but no verified shift in primary governmental or military control has occurred. Resolution by August 31, 2026, would require a major change in effective administration not supported by current developments.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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