The Federal Reserve's September 16, 2026, decision to raise the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00%—its first hike since 2023—combined with the updated Summary of Economic Projections, underpins the 83.5% market-implied probability of at least one additional rate increase before year-end. Sixteen of 18 FOMC participants projected further tightening in 2026, with the median endpoint at 4.1%, reflecting elevated inflation readings (PCE near 3.7%), resilient economic growth, and a stable labor market. Recent August inflation data and geopolitical risks amplified upside price pressures, shifting the committee toward a more hawkish stance than June projections. Traders are pricing roughly 50-80% odds of moves at the October or December meetings, consistent with this consensus, though incoming data on inflation trajectories and employment could still alter the path.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated84% chance
NEW
$38,233 Vol.
NEW
$38,233 Vol.
Dec 8, 2026
84% chance
NEW
$38,233 Vol.
NEW
$38,233 Vol.
Dec 8, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between September 17, 2026 and the completion of the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8 to 9, 2026, inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the December meeting. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Any change to the target federal funds rate announced at the conclusion of the September 15 to 16, 2026 FOMC meeting will not count toward this market. Emergency rate hikes announced on or after September 17, 2026 will qualify.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The Federal Reserve's September 16, 2026, decision to raise the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00%—its first hike since 2023—combined with the updated Summary of Economic Projections, underpins the 83.5% market-implied probability of at least one additional rate increase before year-end. Sixteen of 18 FOMC participants projected further tightening in 2026, with the median endpoint at 4.1%, reflecting elevated inflation readings (PCE near 3.7%), resilient economic growth, and a stable labor market. Recent August inflation data and geopolitical risks amplified upside price pressures, shifting the committee toward a more hawkish stance than June projections. Traders are pricing roughly 50-80% odds of moves at the October or December meetings, consistent with this consensus, though incoming data on inflation trajectories and employment could still alter the path.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between September 17, 2026 and the completion of the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8 to 9, 2026, inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the December meeting. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Any change to the target federal funds rate announced at the conclusion of the September 15 to 16, 2026 FOMC meeting will not count toward this market. Emergency rate hikes announced on or after September 17, 2026 will qualify.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Any change to the target federal funds rate announced at the conclusion of the September 15 to 16, 2026 FOMC meeting will not count toward this market. Emergency rate hikes announced on or after September 17, 2026 will qualify.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Sep 16, 2026, 2:24 PM ET
Volume
$38,233End Date
Dec 9, 2026Market Opened
Sep 16, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between September 17, 2026 and the completion of the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8 to 9, 2026, inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the December meeting. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Any change to the target federal funds rate announced at the conclusion of the September 15 to 16, 2026 FOMC meeting will not count toward this market. Emergency rate hikes announced on or after September 17, 2026 will qualify.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The Federal Reserve's September 16, 2026, decision to raise the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00%—its first hike since 2023—combined with the updated Summary of Economic Projections, underpins the 83.5% market-implied probability of at least one additional rate increase before year-end. Sixteen of 18 FOMC participants projected further tightening in 2026, with the median endpoint at 4.1%, reflecting elevated inflation readings (PCE near 3.7%), resilient economic growth, and a stable labor market. Recent August inflation data and geopolitical risks amplified upside price pressures, shifting the committee toward a more hawkish stance than June projections. Traders are pricing roughly 50-80% odds of moves at the October or December meetings, consistent with this consensus, though incoming data on inflation trajectories and employment could still alter the path.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between September 17, 2026 and the completion of the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8 to 9, 2026, inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the December meeting. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Any change to the target federal funds rate announced at the conclusion of the September 15 to 16, 2026 FOMC meeting will not count toward this market. Emergency rate hikes announced on or after September 17, 2026 will qualify.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Any change to the target federal funds rate announced at the conclusion of the September 15 to 16, 2026 FOMC meeting will not count toward this market. Emergency rate hikes announced on or after September 17, 2026 will qualify.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$38,233End Date
Dec 9, 2026Market Opened
Sep 16, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Federal Reserve's September 16, 2026, decision to raise the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00%—its first hike since 2023—combined with the updated Summary of Economic Projections, underpins the 83.5% market-implied probability of at least one additional rate increase before year-end. Sixteen of 18 FOMC participants projected further tightening in 2026, with the median endpoint at 4.1%, reflecting elevated inflation readings (PCE near 3.7%), resilient economic growth, and a stable labor market. Recent August inflation data and geopolitical risks amplified upside price pressures, shifting the committee toward a more hawkish stance than June projections. Traders are pricing roughly 50-80% odds of moves at the October or December meetings, consistent with this consensus, though incoming data on inflation trajectories and employment could still alter the path.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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