Apple’s official confirmation of the September 9 “Surprise and Shine” event, combined with consistent supply-chain reporting and analyst consensus, has driven the 95.5% market-implied probability that the company will unveil its first foldable iPhone. Multiple credible sources indicate the device—widely expected as the iPhone Ultra in a book-style form factor with a roughly 5.5-inch outer display and 7.8-inch inner OLED—will join the iPhone 18 Pro lineup on stage, marking Apple’s first major form-factor shift in years. Production validation has advanced far enough for a reveal, despite earlier hinge and yield concerns, and the event timing aligns with historical September launches under incoming CEO John Ternus. While near-certain trader consensus reflects this alignment of official signals and manufacturing progress, realistic variables such as a last-minute decision to withhold the device for further testing, limited demo availability, or a surprise rebranding could still alter the exact presentation.