**Musk’s September 2 statement that Grok 4.7 “comes out in 10 days” has anchored trader attention on mid-September dates, yet the tightly clustered probabilities reflect ongoing uncertainty around final verification, API rollout, and any last-minute adjustments.** The 2.1-trillion-parameter model follows Grok 4.6’s August 12 launch and incorporates supplemental SpaceX training data on top of the earlier 1.5-trillion-parameter base. xAI’s monthly release cadence, driven by competition with OpenAI and Anthropic, has produced rapid iteration but also repeated timeline shifts. With no official model card, benchmarks, or endpoint yet published, markets assign roughly comparable odds to September 10–14 and later dates through the end of the month, underscoring the gap between founder guidance and confirmed availability.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedSeptember 22 42%
September 18 42%
September 23 42%
September 25 41%
NEW
NEW
Sep 9, 2026
On or prior to September 9
34%
September 10
34%
September 11
39%
September 12
17%
September 13
31%
September 14
40%
September 15
35%
September 16
36%
September 17
32%
September 18
42%
September 19
15%
September 20
38%
September 21
41%
September 22
42%
September 23
42%
September 24
32%
September 25
41%
September 26
33%
September 27
40%
September 28
40%
September 29
34%
September 30
39%
No release by September 30
14%
September 22 42%
September 18 42%
September 23 42%
September 25 41%
NEW
NEW
Sep 9, 2026
On or prior to September 9
$33 Vol.
34%
September 10
$0 Vol.
34%
September 11
$0 Vol.
39%
September 12
$317 Vol.
17%
September 13
$55 Vol.
31%
September 14
$0 Vol.
40%
September 15
$21 Vol.
35%
September 16
$0 Vol.
36%
September 17
$0 Vol.
32%
September 18
$0 Vol.
42%
September 19
$0 Vol.
15%
September 20
$0 Vol.
38%
September 21
$0 Vol.
41%
September 22
$0 Vol.
42%
September 23
$0 Vol.
42%
September 24
$0 Vol.
32%
September 25
$0 Vol.
41%
September 26
$0 Vol.
33%
September 27
$0 Vol.
40%
September 28
$0 Vol.
40%
September 29
$0 Vol.
34%
September 30
$0 Vol.
39%
No release by September 30
$0 Vol.
14%
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which SpaceXAI's next Grok model (4.7+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.**Musk’s September 2 statement that Grok 4.7 “comes out in 10 days” has anchored trader attention on mid-September dates, yet the tightly clustered probabilities reflect ongoing uncertainty around final verification, API rollout, and any last-minute adjustments.** The 2.1-trillion-parameter model follows Grok 4.6’s August 12 launch and incorporates supplemental SpaceX training data on top of the earlier 1.5-trillion-parameter base. xAI’s monthly release cadence, driven by competition with OpenAI and Anthropic, has produced rapid iteration but also repeated timeline shifts. With no official model card, benchmarks, or endpoint yet published, markets assign roughly comparable odds to September 10–14 and later dates through the end of the month, underscoring the gap between founder guidance and confirmed availability.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which SpaceXAI's next Grok model (4.7+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Sep 3, 2026, 8:19 PM ET
Volume
$426End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 8:19 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which SpaceXAI's next Grok model (4.7+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.**Musk’s September 2 statement that Grok 4.7 “comes out in 10 days” has anchored trader attention on mid-September dates, yet the tightly clustered probabilities reflect ongoing uncertainty around final verification, API rollout, and any last-minute adjustments.** The 2.1-trillion-parameter model follows Grok 4.6’s August 12 launch and incorporates supplemental SpaceX training data on top of the earlier 1.5-trillion-parameter base. xAI’s monthly release cadence, driven by competition with OpenAI and Anthropic, has produced rapid iteration but also repeated timeline shifts. With no official model card, benchmarks, or endpoint yet published, markets assign roughly comparable odds to September 10–14 and later dates through the end of the month, underscoring the gap between founder guidance and confirmed availability.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which SpaceXAI's next Grok model (4.7+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$426End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 8:19 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Musk’s September 2 statement that Grok 4.7 “comes out in 10 days” has anchored trader attention on mid-September dates, yet the tightly clustered probabilities reflect ongoing uncertainty around final verification, API rollout, and any last-minute adjustments.** The 2.1-trillion-parameter model follows Grok 4.6’s August 12 launch and incorporates supplemental SpaceX training data on top of the earlier 1.5-trillion-parameter base. xAI’s monthly release cadence, driven by competition with OpenAI and Anthropic, has produced rapid iteration but also repeated timeline shifts. With no official model card, benchmarks, or endpoint yet published, markets assign roughly comparable odds to September 10–14 and later dates through the end of the month, underscoring the gap between founder guidance and confirmed availability.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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Frequently Asked Questions