Ongoing record ocean heat content and a strengthening El Niño event have driven August 2026 global mean surface temperatures to levels projected near 1.62 °C above the 1850–1900 baseline, according to ERA5 analyses and ensemble forecasts. Daily sea-surface temperatures reached an all-time high of 21.1 °C in late August, while land–ocean averages for the month are tracking well above prior August records and only marginally below the warmest months on record. With most of the month already observed and minimal remaining ensemble spread, trader consensus assigns a 99.5 % implied probability to an outcome exceeding 1.29 °C. Only an unprecedented late-month cooling or substantial downward revision in final datasets would realistically alter this positioning, both of which fall far outside current observational and model constraints.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAugust 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
August 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
>1.29ºC 99.4%
1.25–1.29ºC <1%
1.20–1.24ºC <1%
<1.10ºC <1%
$14,162 Vol.
$14,162 Vol.
Jul 31, 2026
<1.10ºC
<1%
1.10–1.14ºC
<1%
1.15–1.19ºC
<1%
1.20–1.24ºC
1%
1.25–1.29ºC
1%
>1.29ºC
99%
>1.29ºC 99.4%
1.25–1.29ºC <1%
1.20–1.24ºC <1%
<1.10ºC <1%
$14,162 Vol.
$14,162 Vol.
Jul 31, 2026
<1.10ºC
$877 Vol.
<1%
1.10–1.14ºC
$999 Vol.
<1%
1.15–1.19ºC
$1,121 Vol.
<1%
1.20–1.24ºC
$2,093 Vol.
1%
1.25–1.29ºC
$2,778 Vol.
1%
>1.29ºC
$6,294 Vol.
99%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Ongoing record ocean heat content and a strengthening El Niño event have driven August 2026 global mean surface temperatures to levels projected near 1.62 °C above the 1850–1900 baseline, according to ERA5 analyses and ensemble forecasts. Daily sea-surface temperatures reached an all-time high of 21.1 °C in late August, while land–ocean averages for the month are tracking well above prior August records and only marginally below the warmest months on record. With most of the month already observed and minimal remaining ensemble spread, trader consensus assigns a 99.5 % implied probability to an outcome exceeding 1.29 °C. Only an unprecedented late-month cooling or substantial downward revision in final datasets would realistically alter this positioning, both of which fall far outside current observational and model constraints.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Market Opened: Jul 28, 2026, 1:48 PM ET
Volume
$14,162End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 28, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Ongoing record ocean heat content and a strengthening El Niño event have driven August 2026 global mean surface temperatures to levels projected near 1.62 °C above the 1850–1900 baseline, according to ERA5 analyses and ensemble forecasts. Daily sea-surface temperatures reached an all-time high of 21.1 °C in late August, while land–ocean averages for the month are tracking well above prior August records and only marginally below the warmest months on record. With most of the month already observed and minimal remaining ensemble spread, trader consensus assigns a 99.5 % implied probability to an outcome exceeding 1.29 °C. Only an unprecedented late-month cooling or substantial downward revision in final datasets would realistically alter this positioning, both of which fall far outside current observational and model constraints.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Volume
$14,162End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 28, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ongoing record ocean heat content and a strengthening El Niño event have driven August 2026 global mean surface temperatures to levels projected near 1.62 °C above the 1850–1900 baseline, according to ERA5 analyses and ensemble forecasts. Daily sea-surface temperatures reached an all-time high of 21.1 °C in late August, while land–ocean averages for the month are tracking well above prior August records and only marginally below the warmest months on record. With most of the month already observed and minimal remaining ensemble spread, trader consensus assigns a 99.5 % implied probability to an outcome exceeding 1.29 °C. Only an unprecedented late-month cooling or substantial downward revision in final datasets would realistically alter this positioning, both of which fall far outside current observational and model constraints.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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