Recent observational data from ECMWF and Copernicus indicate August 2026 global mean surface temperatures are tracking near 1.4°C above the 1850–1900 baseline, driven primarily by a rapidly strengthening El Niño event with Niño-3.4 anomalies already exceeding +1.8°C and forecasts for a very strong peak later in the year. Record ocean heat content, particularly in the tropics, and the typical several-month lag in El Niño’s global temperature response further support elevated anomalies relative to recent years. Model ensembles show tight clustering around this range, though inherent forecast spread and final dataset revisions introduce modest uncertainty that aligns with the market’s heavy weighting on the 1.38–1.41°C outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAugust 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC) (HIGHER STRIKES)
August 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC) (HIGHER STRIKES)
1.38–1.41ºC 73%
1.42–1.45ºC 24%
1.34–1.37ºC 3.5%
>1.45ºC 3.0%
NEW
NEW
Sep 1, 2026
<1.30ºC
<1%
1.30–1.33ºC
1%
1.34–1.37ºC
4%
1.38–1.41ºC
73%
1.42–1.45ºC
24%
>1.45ºC
3%
1.38–1.41ºC 73%
1.42–1.45ºC 24%
1.34–1.37ºC 3.5%
>1.45ºC 3.0%
NEW
NEW
Sep 1, 2026
<1.30ºC
$366 Vol.
<1%
1.30–1.33ºC
$1,039 Vol.
1%
1.34–1.37ºC
$1,947 Vol.
4%
1.38–1.41ºC
$1,182 Vol.
73%
1.42–1.45ºC
$3,782 Vol.
24%
>1.45ºC
$587 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Recent observational data from ECMWF and Copernicus indicate August 2026 global mean surface temperatures are tracking near 1.4°C above the 1850–1900 baseline, driven primarily by a rapidly strengthening El Niño event with Niño-3.4 anomalies already exceeding +1.8°C and forecasts for a very strong peak later in the year. Record ocean heat content, particularly in the tropics, and the typical several-month lag in El Niño’s global temperature response further support elevated anomalies relative to recent years. Model ensembles show tight clustering around this range, though inherent forecast spread and final dataset revisions introduce modest uncertainty that aligns with the market’s heavy weighting on the 1.38–1.41°C outcome.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Market Opened: Aug 14, 2026, 2:30 PM ET
Volume
$8,904End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 2:30 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Recent observational data from ECMWF and Copernicus indicate August 2026 global mean surface temperatures are tracking near 1.4°C above the 1850–1900 baseline, driven primarily by a rapidly strengthening El Niño event with Niño-3.4 anomalies already exceeding +1.8°C and forecasts for a very strong peak later in the year. Record ocean heat content, particularly in the tropics, and the typical several-month lag in El Niño’s global temperature response further support elevated anomalies relative to recent years. Model ensembles show tight clustering around this range, though inherent forecast spread and final dataset revisions introduce modest uncertainty that aligns with the market’s heavy weighting on the 1.38–1.41°C outcome.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Volume
$8,904End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 2:30 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent observational data from ECMWF and Copernicus indicate August 2026 global mean surface temperatures are tracking near 1.4°C above the 1850–1900 baseline, driven primarily by a rapidly strengthening El Niño event with Niño-3.4 anomalies already exceeding +1.8°C and forecasts for a very strong peak later in the year. Record ocean heat content, particularly in the tropics, and the typical several-month lag in El Niño’s global temperature response further support elevated anomalies relative to recent years. Model ensembles show tight clustering around this range, though inherent forecast spread and final dataset revisions introduce modest uncertainty that aligns with the market’s heavy weighting on the 1.38–1.41°C outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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