**Trader consensus on the Bank of Canada’s September 2, 2026, policy decision reflects a clear preference for holding the overnight rate steady at 2.25%, with market-implied odds showing overwhelming support for no change.** This positioning stems from the BoC’s July 15 statement and Monetary Policy Report, which emphasized patience amid elevated uncertainty from energy prices and U.S. trade developments, while noting that growth is firming and inflation is expected to ease gradually toward the 2% target. July CPI printed at 3.0% year-over-year—slightly above the prior month but still near the upper end of the 1–3% control range—with core measures remaining contained around 1.9–2.3%. Major banks and overnight index swap pricing align with a hold, citing the current rate’s position at the lower bound of the estimated neutral range (2.25–3.25%) and the need for additional data clarity before any adjustment. Recent labor-market improvement (unemployment near 6.4–6.5%) and a rebound in Q2 growth further support leaving policy unchanged, as does the BoC’s explicit readiness to respond to incoming information rather than act preemptively. Realistic scenarios that could shift sentiment include a sharper-than-expected inflation print or renewed oil-price spike before the blackout period, though the current data trajectory and forward guidance make such outcomes low-probability near-term catalysts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNo Change 99.6%
50+ bps increase <1%
25 bps decrease <1%
25 bps increase <1%
$70,399 Vol.
$70,399 Vol.
Sep 1, 2026
50+ bps increase
<1%
25 bps increase
<1%
No Change
100%
25 bps decrease
<1%
50+ bps decrease
<1%
No Change 99.6%
50+ bps increase <1%
25 bps decrease <1%
25 bps increase <1%
$70,399 Vol.
$70,399 Vol.
Sep 1, 2026
50+ bps increase
$6,200 Vol.
<1%
25 bps increase
$10,124 Vol.
<1%
No Change
$43,282 Vol.
100%
25 bps decrease
$5,831 Vol.
<1%
50+ bps decrease
$4,962 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight rate resulting from the September 2026 interest rate announcement of the Bank of Canada, relative to the level it was prior to this announcement.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Canada, including the statement or release from its September 2026 interest rate announcement, scheduled for September 2, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Canada resulting from its September 2026 interest rate decision with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified announcement is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed announcement. If the specified announcement is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified announcement will not be considered.**Trader consensus on the Bank of Canada’s September 2, 2026, policy decision reflects a clear preference for holding the overnight rate steady at 2.25%, with market-implied odds showing overwhelming support for no change.**
This positioning stems from the BoC’s July 15 statement and Monetary Policy Report, which emphasized patience amid elevated uncertainty from energy prices and U.S. trade developments, while noting that growth is firming and inflation is expected to ease gradually toward the 2% target. July CPI printed at 3.0% year-over-year—slightly above the prior month but still near the upper end of the 1–3% control range—with core measures remaining contained around 1.9–2.3%. Major banks and overnight index swap pricing align with a hold, citing the current rate’s position at the lower bound of the estimated neutral range (2.25–3.25%) and the need for additional data clarity before any adjustment.
Recent labor-market improvement (unemployment near 6.4–6.5%) and a rebound in Q2 growth further support leaving policy unchanged, as does the BoC’s explicit readiness to respond to incoming information rather than act preemptively.
Realistic scenarios that could shift sentiment include a sharper-than-expected inflation print or renewed oil-price spike before the blackout period, though the current data trajectory and forward guidance make such outcomes low-probability near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight rate resulting from the September 2026 interest rate announcement of the Bank of Canada, relative to the level it was prior to this announcement.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Canada, including the statement or release from its September 2026 interest rate announcement, scheduled for September 2, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Canada resulting from its September 2026 interest rate decision with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified announcement is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed announcement. If the specified announcement is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified announcement will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Canada, including the statement or release from its September 2026 interest rate announcement, scheduled for September 2, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Canada resulting from its September 2026 interest rate decision with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified announcement is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed announcement. If the specified announcement is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified announcement will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 2, 2026, 3:16 PM ET
Volume
$70,399End Date
Sep 2, 2026Market Opened
Jul 2, 2026, 3:16 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight rate resulting from the September 2026 interest rate announcement of the Bank of Canada, relative to the level it was prior to this announcement.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Canada, including the statement or release from its September 2026 interest rate announcement, scheduled for September 2, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Canada resulting from its September 2026 interest rate decision with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified announcement is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed announcement. If the specified announcement is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified announcement will not be considered.**Trader consensus on the Bank of Canada’s September 2, 2026, policy decision reflects a clear preference for holding the overnight rate steady at 2.25%, with market-implied odds showing overwhelming support for no change.**
This positioning stems from the BoC’s July 15 statement and Monetary Policy Report, which emphasized patience amid elevated uncertainty from energy prices and U.S. trade developments, while noting that growth is firming and inflation is expected to ease gradually toward the 2% target. July CPI printed at 3.0% year-over-year—slightly above the prior month but still near the upper end of the 1–3% control range—with core measures remaining contained around 1.9–2.3%. Major banks and overnight index swap pricing align with a hold, citing the current rate’s position at the lower bound of the estimated neutral range (2.25–3.25%) and the need for additional data clarity before any adjustment.
Recent labor-market improvement (unemployment near 6.4–6.5%) and a rebound in Q2 growth further support leaving policy unchanged, as does the BoC’s explicit readiness to respond to incoming information rather than act preemptively.
Realistic scenarios that could shift sentiment include a sharper-than-expected inflation print or renewed oil-price spike before the blackout period, though the current data trajectory and forward guidance make such outcomes low-probability near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight rate resulting from the September 2026 interest rate announcement of the Bank of Canada, relative to the level it was prior to this announcement.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Canada, including the statement or release from its September 2026 interest rate announcement, scheduled for September 2, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Canada resulting from its September 2026 interest rate decision with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified announcement is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed announcement. If the specified announcement is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified announcement will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Canada, including the statement or release from its September 2026 interest rate announcement, scheduled for September 2, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Canada resulting from its September 2026 interest rate decision with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified announcement is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed announcement. If the specified announcement is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified announcement will not be considered.
Volume
$70,399End Date
Sep 2, 2026Market Opened
Jul 2, 2026, 3:16 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader consensus on the Bank of Canada’s September 2, 2026, policy decision reflects a clear preference for holding the overnight rate steady at 2.25%, with market-implied odds showing overwhelming support for no change.** This positioning stems from the BoC’s July 15 statement and Monetary Policy Report, which emphasized patience amid elevated uncertainty from energy prices and U.S. trade developments, while noting that growth is firming and inflation is expected to ease gradually toward the 2% target. July CPI printed at 3.0% year-over-year—slightly above the prior month but still near the upper end of the 1–3% control range—with core measures remaining contained around 1.9–2.3%. Major banks and overnight index swap pricing align with a hold, citing the current rate’s position at the lower bound of the estimated neutral range (2.25–3.25%) and the need for additional data clarity before any adjustment. Recent labor-market improvement (unemployment near 6.4–6.5%) and a rebound in Q2 growth further support leaving policy unchanged, as does the BoC’s explicit readiness to respond to incoming information rather than act preemptively. Realistic scenarios that could shift sentiment include a sharper-than-expected inflation print or renewed oil-price spike before the blackout period, though the current data trajectory and forward guidance make such outcomes low-probability near-term catalysts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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