**Recent opinion polls show Die Linke consistently ahead of the SPD by a wide margin ahead of Berlin’s Abgeordnetenhaus election on 20 September 2026.** Multiple surveys from August 2026, including Forsa (Linke 22%, SPD 12%), INSA (Linke 19%, SPD 15%), and Civey (Linke 21%, SPD 12%), place Linke among the top two parties while the SPD trails in fifth. This gap has widened over the summer, building on Linke gains first visible in spring and summer polling and reinforced by strong results for the party in Berlin during the 2025 federal election. The SPD, as junior partner in the current CDU-led coalition under Governing Mayor Kai Wegner, has seen its support erode amid widespread dissatisfaction with the government’s performance; Wegner’s withdrawal as CDU lead candidate after criticism of crisis communication during a prolonged power outage has not reversed the SPD’s decline. With Linke lead candidate Elif Eralp and SPD lead candidate Steffen Krach, the polling differential of roughly 6–10 points has produced the strong trader consensus reflected in current market pricing. Late-campaign shifts remain possible but would need to be substantial to close the gap.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLinke
93% chance
NEW
NEW
Sep 20, 2026
Linke
93% chance
NEW
NEW
Sep 20, 2026
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Linke” if Linke wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than SPD in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “SPD” if SPD wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than Linke in the specified election.
This market will resolve 50-50 if both Linke and SPD receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party.
Valid second votes will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).**Recent opinion polls show Die Linke consistently ahead of the SPD by a wide margin ahead of Berlin’s Abgeordnetenhaus election on 20 September 2026.**
Multiple surveys from August 2026, including Forsa (Linke 22%, SPD 12%), INSA (Linke 19%, SPD 15%), and Civey (Linke 21%, SPD 12%), place Linke among the top two parties while the SPD trails in fifth. This gap has widened over the summer, building on Linke gains first visible in spring and summer polling and reinforced by strong results for the party in Berlin during the 2025 federal election.
The SPD, as junior partner in the current CDU-led coalition under Governing Mayor Kai Wegner, has seen its support erode amid widespread dissatisfaction with the government’s performance; Wegner’s withdrawal as CDU lead candidate after criticism of crisis communication during a prolonged power outage has not reversed the SPD’s decline. With Linke lead candidate Elif Eralp and SPD lead candidate Steffen Krach, the polling differential of roughly 6–10 points has produced the strong trader consensus reflected in current market pricing. Late-campaign shifts remain possible but would need to be substantial to close the gap.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Linke” if Linke wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than SPD in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “SPD” if SPD wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than Linke in the specified election.
This market will resolve 50-50 if both Linke and SPD receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party.
Valid second votes will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve to “Linke” if Linke wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than SPD in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “SPD” if SPD wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than Linke in the specified election.
This market will resolve 50-50 if both Linke and SPD receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party.
Valid second votes will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
Market Opened: Aug 20, 2026, 2:17 PM ET
Volume
$603End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 2:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Linke” if Linke wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than SPD in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “SPD” if SPD wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than Linke in the specified election.
This market will resolve 50-50 if both Linke and SPD receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party.
Valid second votes will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).**Recent opinion polls show Die Linke consistently ahead of the SPD by a wide margin ahead of Berlin’s Abgeordnetenhaus election on 20 September 2026.**
Multiple surveys from August 2026, including Forsa (Linke 22%, SPD 12%), INSA (Linke 19%, SPD 15%), and Civey (Linke 21%, SPD 12%), place Linke among the top two parties while the SPD trails in fifth. This gap has widened over the summer, building on Linke gains first visible in spring and summer polling and reinforced by strong results for the party in Berlin during the 2025 federal election.
The SPD, as junior partner in the current CDU-led coalition under Governing Mayor Kai Wegner, has seen its support erode amid widespread dissatisfaction with the government’s performance; Wegner’s withdrawal as CDU lead candidate after criticism of crisis communication during a prolonged power outage has not reversed the SPD’s decline. With Linke lead candidate Elif Eralp and SPD lead candidate Steffen Krach, the polling differential of roughly 6–10 points has produced the strong trader consensus reflected in current market pricing. Late-campaign shifts remain possible but would need to be substantial to close the gap.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Linke” if Linke wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than SPD in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “SPD” if SPD wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than Linke in the specified election.
This market will resolve 50-50 if both Linke and SPD receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party.
Valid second votes will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve to “Linke” if Linke wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than SPD in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “SPD” if SPD wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than Linke in the specified election.
This market will resolve 50-50 if both Linke and SPD receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party.
Valid second votes will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
Volume
$603End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 2:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Recent opinion polls show Die Linke consistently ahead of the SPD by a wide margin ahead of Berlin’s Abgeordnetenhaus election on 20 September 2026.** Multiple surveys from August 2026, including Forsa (Linke 22%, SPD 12%), INSA (Linke 19%, SPD 15%), and Civey (Linke 21%, SPD 12%), place Linke among the top two parties while the SPD trails in fifth. This gap has widened over the summer, building on Linke gains first visible in spring and summer polling and reinforced by strong results for the party in Berlin during the 2025 federal election. The SPD, as junior partner in the current CDU-led coalition under Governing Mayor Kai Wegner, has seen its support erode amid widespread dissatisfaction with the government’s performance; Wegner’s withdrawal as CDU lead candidate after criticism of crisis communication during a prolonged power outage has not reversed the SPD’s decline. With Linke lead candidate Elif Eralp and SPD lead candidate Steffen Krach, the polling differential of roughly 6–10 points has produced the strong trader consensus reflected in current market pricing. Late-campaign shifts remain possible but would need to be substantial to close the gap.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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