**Recent polling trends in the run-up to the September 6, 2026, Sachsen-Anhalt Landtag election show Die Linke hovering near or below the 12% threshold, supporting the slight trader lean toward "Under."** The most recent Infratest dimap survey for ARD (conducted August 24–25) placed the party at 11% (down 2 points from July), while earlier August polls from INSA and pollytix had it at 13%. These figures align closely with the party's 11.0% result in 2021 and reflect modest losses amid gains for the AfD (now at 42%), modest upticks for the SPD and Greens, and stable low-single-digit support for the BSW and FDP. With the election only days away and roughly 11% of respondents still undecided, the latest dip has shifted implied probabilities modestly toward an outcome below 12%. Structural factors include the five-percent electoral threshold dynamics, limited differentiation from competing left-leaning options, and the CDU's ongoing Unvereinbarkeitsbeschluss limiting coalition speculation that might otherwise boost turnout or visibility for Die Linke. No major late-campaign events or candidate-specific shifts have reversed this polling trajectory in the final weeks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedOver
45% chance
NEW
NEW
Sep 6, 2026
Over
45% chance
NEW
NEW
Sep 6, 2026
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if Linke wins at least 12% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if Linke wins less than 12% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landeswahlleiter Sachsen-Anhalt) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).**Recent polling trends in the run-up to the September 6, 2026, Sachsen-Anhalt Landtag election show Die Linke hovering near or below the 12% threshold, supporting the slight trader lean toward "Under."**
The most recent Infratest dimap survey for ARD (conducted August 24–25) placed the party at 11% (down 2 points from July), while earlier August polls from INSA and pollytix had it at 13%. These figures align closely with the party's 11.0% result in 2021 and reflect modest losses amid gains for the AfD (now at 42%), modest upticks for the SPD and Greens, and stable low-single-digit support for the BSW and FDP. With the election only days away and roughly 11% of respondents still undecided, the latest dip has shifted implied probabilities modestly toward an outcome below 12%.
Structural factors include the five-percent electoral threshold dynamics, limited differentiation from competing left-leaning options, and the CDU's ongoing Unvereinbarkeitsbeschluss limiting coalition speculation that might otherwise boost turnout or visibility for Die Linke. No major late-campaign events or candidate-specific shifts have reversed this polling trajectory in the final weeks.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if Linke wins at least 12% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if Linke wins less than 12% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landeswahlleiter Sachsen-Anhalt) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).
This market will resolve to “Over” if Linke wins at least 12% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if Linke wins less than 12% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landeswahlleiter Sachsen-Anhalt) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).
Market Opened: Aug 20, 2026, 2:24 PM ET
Volume
$6,691End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if Linke wins at least 12% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if Linke wins less than 12% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landeswahlleiter Sachsen-Anhalt) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).**Recent polling trends in the run-up to the September 6, 2026, Sachsen-Anhalt Landtag election show Die Linke hovering near or below the 12% threshold, supporting the slight trader lean toward "Under."**
The most recent Infratest dimap survey for ARD (conducted August 24–25) placed the party at 11% (down 2 points from July), while earlier August polls from INSA and pollytix had it at 13%. These figures align closely with the party's 11.0% result in 2021 and reflect modest losses amid gains for the AfD (now at 42%), modest upticks for the SPD and Greens, and stable low-single-digit support for the BSW and FDP. With the election only days away and roughly 11% of respondents still undecided, the latest dip has shifted implied probabilities modestly toward an outcome below 12%.
Structural factors include the five-percent electoral threshold dynamics, limited differentiation from competing left-leaning options, and the CDU's ongoing Unvereinbarkeitsbeschluss limiting coalition speculation that might otherwise boost turnout or visibility for Die Linke. No major late-campaign events or candidate-specific shifts have reversed this polling trajectory in the final weeks.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if Linke wins at least 12% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if Linke wins less than 12% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landeswahlleiter Sachsen-Anhalt) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).
This market will resolve to “Over” if Linke wins at least 12% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if Linke wins less than 12% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landeswahlleiter Sachsen-Anhalt) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).
Volume
$6,691End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Recent polling trends in the run-up to the September 6, 2026, Sachsen-Anhalt Landtag election show Die Linke hovering near or below the 12% threshold, supporting the slight trader lean toward "Under."** The most recent Infratest dimap survey for ARD (conducted August 24–25) placed the party at 11% (down 2 points from July), while earlier August polls from INSA and pollytix had it at 13%. These figures align closely with the party's 11.0% result in 2021 and reflect modest losses amid gains for the AfD (now at 42%), modest upticks for the SPD and Greens, and stable low-single-digit support for the BSW and FDP. With the election only days away and roughly 11% of respondents still undecided, the latest dip has shifted implied probabilities modestly toward an outcome below 12%. Structural factors include the five-percent electoral threshold dynamics, limited differentiation from competing left-leaning options, and the CDU's ongoing Unvereinbarkeitsbeschluss limiting coalition speculation that might otherwise boost turnout or visibility for Die Linke. No major late-campaign events or candidate-specific shifts have reversed this polling trajectory in the final weeks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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