Recent expansions in Berlin’s electorate, including the first-time extension of voting rights to 16- and 17-year-olds and higher naturalization rates, have increased the pool of eligible voters to roughly 2.5 million from 2.43 million in 2023. Concurrent district assembly elections further enlarge participation by enfranchising additional EU citizens at the local level. With 17 parties qualified for the September 20, 2026, Abgeordnetenhaus contest and polls showing a fragmented race led by Die Linke, CDU, and AfD, campaign mobilization has intensified ahead of the return to a regular five-year cycle after the 2023 repeat election. These structural factors support the 71.5% implied probability that turnout will exceed the prior 62.9% benchmark, as traders weigh expanded access and competitive dynamics against historical patterns in state elections.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedUp
85% chance
NEW
NEW
Sep 20, 2026
Up
85% chance
NEW
NEW
Sep 20, 2026
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Up" if the turnout in the specified election is higher than 62.9%.
This market will resolve to "Down" if the turnout in the specified election is lower than 62.9%.
If the reported turnout is exactly 62.9%, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for the specified election, defined as the total number of voters who participated, divided by the total number of eligible voters. Qualifying figures must be final; preliminary results will not be considered.
The level of precision considered will be one decimal place; if presented otherwise, the figure will be rounded to one decimal place before comparison.
If voting in the specified election does not occur or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based solely on the finalized official results as published by the authoritative sources such as the Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin (https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/) and the Amt für Statistik Berlin-Brandenburg (https://www.statistik-berlin-brandenburg.de/wahlen-berlin/).Recent expansions in Berlin’s electorate, including the first-time extension of voting rights to 16- and 17-year-olds and higher naturalization rates, have increased the pool of eligible voters to roughly 2.5 million from 2.43 million in 2023. Concurrent district assembly elections further enlarge participation by enfranchising additional EU citizens at the local level. With 17 parties qualified for the September 20, 2026, Abgeordnetenhaus contest and polls showing a fragmented race led by Die Linke, CDU, and AfD, campaign mobilization has intensified ahead of the return to a regular five-year cycle after the 2023 repeat election. These structural factors support the 71.5% implied probability that turnout will exceed the prior 62.9% benchmark, as traders weigh expanded access and competitive dynamics against historical patterns in state elections.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Up" if the turnout in the specified election is higher than 62.9%.
This market will resolve to "Down" if the turnout in the specified election is lower than 62.9%.
If the reported turnout is exactly 62.9%, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for the specified election, defined as the total number of voters who participated, divided by the total number of eligible voters. Qualifying figures must be final; preliminary results will not be considered.
The level of precision considered will be one decimal place; if presented otherwise, the figure will be rounded to one decimal place before comparison.
If voting in the specified election does not occur or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based solely on the finalized official results as published by the authoritative sources such as the Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin (https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/) and the Amt für Statistik Berlin-Brandenburg (https://www.statistik-berlin-brandenburg.de/wahlen-berlin/).
This market will resolve to "Up" if the turnout in the specified election is higher than 62.9%.
This market will resolve to "Down" if the turnout in the specified election is lower than 62.9%.
If the reported turnout is exactly 62.9%, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for the specified election, defined as the total number of voters who participated, divided by the total number of eligible voters. Qualifying figures must be final; preliminary results will not be considered.
The level of precision considered will be one decimal place; if presented otherwise, the figure will be rounded to one decimal place before comparison.
If voting in the specified election does not occur or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based solely on the finalized official results as published by the authoritative sources such as the Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin (https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/) and the Amt für Statistik Berlin-Brandenburg (https://www.statistik-berlin-brandenburg.de/wahlen-berlin/).
Market Opened: Aug 6, 2026, 8:50 PM ET
Volume
$2,261End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Aug 6, 2026, 8:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Up" if the turnout in the specified election is higher than 62.9%.
This market will resolve to "Down" if the turnout in the specified election is lower than 62.9%.
If the reported turnout is exactly 62.9%, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for the specified election, defined as the total number of voters who participated, divided by the total number of eligible voters. Qualifying figures must be final; preliminary results will not be considered.
The level of precision considered will be one decimal place; if presented otherwise, the figure will be rounded to one decimal place before comparison.
If voting in the specified election does not occur or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based solely on the finalized official results as published by the authoritative sources such as the Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin (https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/) and the Amt für Statistik Berlin-Brandenburg (https://www.statistik-berlin-brandenburg.de/wahlen-berlin/).Recent expansions in Berlin’s electorate, including the first-time extension of voting rights to 16- and 17-year-olds and higher naturalization rates, have increased the pool of eligible voters to roughly 2.5 million from 2.43 million in 2023. Concurrent district assembly elections further enlarge participation by enfranchising additional EU citizens at the local level. With 17 parties qualified for the September 20, 2026, Abgeordnetenhaus contest and polls showing a fragmented race led by Die Linke, CDU, and AfD, campaign mobilization has intensified ahead of the return to a regular five-year cycle after the 2023 repeat election. These structural factors support the 71.5% implied probability that turnout will exceed the prior 62.9% benchmark, as traders weigh expanded access and competitive dynamics against historical patterns in state elections.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Up" if the turnout in the specified election is higher than 62.9%.
This market will resolve to "Down" if the turnout in the specified election is lower than 62.9%.
If the reported turnout is exactly 62.9%, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for the specified election, defined as the total number of voters who participated, divided by the total number of eligible voters. Qualifying figures must be final; preliminary results will not be considered.
The level of precision considered will be one decimal place; if presented otherwise, the figure will be rounded to one decimal place before comparison.
If voting in the specified election does not occur or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based solely on the finalized official results as published by the authoritative sources such as the Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin (https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/) and the Amt für Statistik Berlin-Brandenburg (https://www.statistik-berlin-brandenburg.de/wahlen-berlin/).
This market will resolve to "Up" if the turnout in the specified election is higher than 62.9%.
This market will resolve to "Down" if the turnout in the specified election is lower than 62.9%.
If the reported turnout is exactly 62.9%, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for the specified election, defined as the total number of voters who participated, divided by the total number of eligible voters. Qualifying figures must be final; preliminary results will not be considered.
The level of precision considered will be one decimal place; if presented otherwise, the figure will be rounded to one decimal place before comparison.
If voting in the specified election does not occur or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based solely on the finalized official results as published by the authoritative sources such as the Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin (https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/) and the Amt für Statistik Berlin-Brandenburg (https://www.statistik-berlin-brandenburg.de/wahlen-berlin/).
Volume
$2,261End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Aug 6, 2026, 8:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent expansions in Berlin’s electorate, including the first-time extension of voting rights to 16- and 17-year-olds and higher naturalization rates, have increased the pool of eligible voters to roughly 2.5 million from 2.43 million in 2023. Concurrent district assembly elections further enlarge participation by enfranchising additional EU citizens at the local level. With 17 parties qualified for the September 20, 2026, Abgeordnetenhaus contest and polls showing a fragmented race led by Die Linke, CDU, and AfD, campaign mobilization has intensified ahead of the return to a regular five-year cycle after the 2023 repeat election. These structural factors support the 71.5% implied probability that turnout will exceed the prior 62.9% benchmark, as traders weigh expanded access and competitive dynamics against historical patterns in state elections.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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