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icon for Emmys 2026: Outstanding guest actor in a comedy series

Emmys 2026: Outstanding guest actor in a comedy series

icon for Emmys 2026: Outstanding guest actor in a comedy series

Emmys 2026: Outstanding guest actor in a comedy series

Rob Reiner – “The Bear” 47.9%

Michael J. Fox – “Shrinking” 39.1%

Hamish Linklater – “Widow’s Bay” 6.2%

Connor Storrie – “Saturday Night Live” 6.0%

Polymarket

$41,824 Vol.

Rob Reiner – “The Bear” 47.9%

Michael J. Fox – “Shrinking” 39.1%

Hamish Linklater – “Widow’s Bay” 6.2%

Connor Storrie – “Saturday Night Live” 6.0%

Polymarket

$41,824 Vol.

Rob Reiner – “The Bear”

$12,850 Vol.

48%

Michael J. Fox – “Shrinking”

$10,273 Vol.

39%

Hamish Linklater – “Widow’s Bay”

$4,888 Vol.

6%

Connor Storrie – “Saturday Night Live”

$3,379 Vol.

6%

Brett Goldstein – “Shrinking”

$2,116 Vol.

4%

Christopher McDonald – “Hacks”

$8,319 Vol.

4%

The 78th Primetime Emmy Awards, given by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences, honor the best in American prime time television programming aired between June 1, 2025, until May 31, 2026. The awards ceremony is scheduled for September 14, 2026, at the Peacock Theater in Downtown Los Angeles, California This market will resolve according to the person who wins the 2026 Emmy award for “Outstanding guest actor in a comedy series”. If for any reason no winner is declared by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of overall cancellation or a tie for winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominee which comes first in alphabetical order. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences and the Emmys, including data from their websites (e.g. https://theemmys.tv/, https://www.televisionacademy.com/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Rob Reiner holds the market edge at 48% implied probability for Outstanding Guest Actor in a Comedy Series, driven primarily by his posthumous nomination for the three-episode arc as restaurant consultant Albert in The Bear’s Season 4, paired with the series’ heartfelt “As you wish” tribute to him in the Season 5 finale. Traders appear to weigh the emotional resonance of Reiner’s legacy—two prior Emmys from All in the Family—against Michael J. Fox’s 39% positioning, which reflects strong sentiment around Fox’s first nomination in a decade for his guest turn as a Parkinson’s patient in Shrinking. The tight race between these frontrunners, with the remaining nominees (including Hamish Linklater, Connor Storrie, Christopher McDonald, and Brett Goldstein) clustered below 6%, underscores limited precursor data in the guest category and the Academy’s historical openness to both sentimental wins and high-profile comebacks ahead of final Creative Arts voting.

The 78th Primetime Emmy Awards, given by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences, honor the best in American prime time television programming aired between June 1, 2025, until May 31, 2026. The awards ceremony is scheduled for September 14, 2026, at the Peacock Theater in Downtown Los Angeles, California

This market will resolve according to the person who wins the 2026 Emmy award for “Outstanding guest actor in a comedy series”.

If for any reason no winner is declared by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of overall cancellation or a tie for winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominee which comes first in alphabetical order.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences and the Emmys, including data from their websites (e.g. https://theemmys.tv/, https://www.televisionacademy.com/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$41,824
End Date
Sep 14, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 9, 2026, 8:33 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The 78th Primetime Emmy Awards, given by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences, honor the best in American prime time television programming aired between June 1, 2025, until May 31, 2026. The awards ceremony is scheduled for September 14, 2026, at the Peacock Theater in Downtown Los Angeles, California This market will resolve according to the person who wins the 2026 Emmy award for “Outstanding guest actor in a comedy series”. If for any reason no winner is declared by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of overall cancellation or a tie for winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominee which comes first in alphabetical order. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences and the Emmys, including data from their websites (e.g. https://theemmys.tv/, https://www.televisionacademy.com/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The 78th Primetime Emmy Awards, given by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences, honor the best in American prime time television programming aired between June 1, 2025, until May 31, 2026. The awards ceremony is scheduled for September 14, 2026, at the Peacock Theater in Downtown Los Angeles, California This market will resolve according to the person who wins the 2026 Emmy award for “Outstanding guest actor in a comedy series”. If for any reason no winner is declared by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of overall cancellation or a tie for winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominee which comes first in alphabetical order. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences and the Emmys, including data from their websites (e.g. https://theemmys.tv/, https://www.televisionacademy.com/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Rob Reiner holds the market edge at 48% implied probability for Outstanding Guest Actor in a Comedy Series, driven primarily by his posthumous nomination for the three-episode arc as restaurant consultant Albert in The Bear’s Season 4, paired with the series’ heartfelt “As you wish” tribute to him in the Season 5 finale. Traders appear to weigh the emotional resonance of Reiner’s legacy—two prior Emmys from All in the Family—against Michael J. Fox’s 39% positioning, which reflects strong sentiment around Fox’s first nomination in a decade for his guest turn as a Parkinson’s patient in Shrinking. The tight race between these frontrunners, with the remaining nominees (including Hamish Linklater, Connor Storrie, Christopher McDonald, and Brett Goldstein) clustered below 6%, underscores limited precursor data in the guest category and the Academy’s historical openness to both sentimental wins and high-profile comebacks ahead of final Creative Arts voting.

The 78th Primetime Emmy Awards, given by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences, honor the best in American prime time television programming aired between June 1, 2025, until May 31, 2026. The awards ceremony is scheduled for September 14, 2026, at the Peacock Theater in Downtown Los Angeles, California

This market will resolve according to the person who wins the 2026 Emmy award for “Outstanding guest actor in a comedy series”.

If for any reason no winner is declared by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of overall cancellation or a tie for winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominee which comes first in alphabetical order.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences and the Emmys, including data from their websites (e.g. https://theemmys.tv/, https://www.televisionacademy.com/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$41,824
End Date
Sep 14, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 9, 2026, 8:33 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The 78th Primetime Emmy Awards, given by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences, honor the best in American prime time television programming aired between June 1, 2025, until May 31, 2026. The awards ceremony is scheduled for September 14, 2026, at the Peacock Theater in Downtown Los Angeles, California This market will resolve according to the person who wins the 2026 Emmy award for “Outstanding guest actor in a comedy series”. If for any reason no winner is declared by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of overall cancellation or a tie for winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominee which comes first in alphabetical order. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences and the Emmys, including data from their websites (e.g. https://theemmys.tv/, https://www.televisionacademy.com/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Emmys 2026: Outstanding guest actor in a comedy series" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 6 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Rob Reiner – “The Bear”" at 48%, followed by "Michael J. Fox – “Shrinking”" at 39%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 48¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 48% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Emmys 2026: Outstanding guest actor in a comedy series" has generated $41.8K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 9, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Emmys 2026: Outstanding guest actor in a comedy series," browse the 6 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Emmys 2026: Outstanding guest actor in a comedy series" is "Rob Reiner – “The Bear”" at 48%, meaning the market assigns a 48% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Michael J. Fox – “Shrinking”" at 39%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Emmys 2026: Outstanding guest actor in a comedy series" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.