Ongoing US-Iran military strikes have targeted Iranian military assets on Kharg Island and nearby sites in the Strait of Hormuz, yet Iranian control persists amid intermittent oil terminal operations. Kharg handles roughly 90% of Iran's crude exports, making any shift in sovereignty a direct driver of global energy supply dynamics, tanker flows, and benchmark crude pricing. Export volumes have fluctuated sharply this year, with loading halts and partial restarts tied to blockade episodes and sanctions enforcement, while diplomatic efforts via Qatar and Oman focus on reopening maritime corridors. Traders price the low near-term probability of territorial change against the high economic stakes of sustained Iranian revenue from oil shipments, with resolution hinging on ceasefire terms, FOMC-sensitive risk appetite, and any escalation thresholds around energy infrastructure.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedFarsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
$119,081 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
August 31
<1%
September 30
2%
$119,081 Vol.
August 31
$44,852 Vol.
<1%
September 30
$74,230 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing US-Iran military strikes have targeted Iranian military assets on Kharg Island and nearby sites in the Strait of Hormuz, yet Iranian control persists amid intermittent oil terminal operations. Kharg handles roughly 90% of Iran's crude exports, making any shift in sovereignty a direct driver of global energy supply dynamics, tanker flows, and benchmark crude pricing. Export volumes have fluctuated sharply this year, with loading halts and partial restarts tied to blockade episodes and sanctions enforcement, while diplomatic efforts via Qatar and Oman focus on reopening maritime corridors. Traders price the low near-term probability of territorial change against the high economic stakes of sustained Iranian revenue from oil shipments, with resolution hinging on ceasefire terms, FOMC-sensitive risk appetite, and any escalation thresholds around energy infrastructure.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Aug 4, 2026, 8:03 PM ET
Volume
$119,081End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 4, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing US-Iran military strikes have targeted Iranian military assets on Kharg Island and nearby sites in the Strait of Hormuz, yet Iranian control persists amid intermittent oil terminal operations. Kharg handles roughly 90% of Iran's crude exports, making any shift in sovereignty a direct driver of global energy supply dynamics, tanker flows, and benchmark crude pricing. Export volumes have fluctuated sharply this year, with loading halts and partial restarts tied to blockade episodes and sanctions enforcement, while diplomatic efforts via Qatar and Oman focus on reopening maritime corridors. Traders price the low near-term probability of territorial change against the high economic stakes of sustained Iranian revenue from oil shipments, with resolution hinging on ceasefire terms, FOMC-sensitive risk appetite, and any escalation thresholds around energy infrastructure.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$119,081End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 4, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing US-Iran military strikes have targeted Iranian military assets on Kharg Island and nearby sites in the Strait of Hormuz, yet Iranian control persists amid intermittent oil terminal operations. Kharg handles roughly 90% of Iran's crude exports, making any shift in sovereignty a direct driver of global energy supply dynamics, tanker flows, and benchmark crude pricing. Export volumes have fluctuated sharply this year, with loading halts and partial restarts tied to blockade episodes and sanctions enforcement, while diplomatic efforts via Qatar and Oman focus on reopening maritime corridors. Traders price the low near-term probability of territorial change against the high economic stakes of sustained Iranian revenue from oil shipments, with resolution hinging on ceasefire terms, FOMC-sensitive risk appetite, and any escalation thresholds around energy infrastructure.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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