US military strikes in the ongoing Iran conflict have targeted strategic Persian Gulf islands such as Kharg, Greater Tunb, Abu Musa, and Qeshm to disrupt IRGC coastal defenses, missile sites, and oil infrastructure near the Strait of Hormuz, yet Farsi Island—an isolated IRGC Navy outpost used historically for small-boat operations—has not been struck or reported seized. Iranian forces continue to assert operational control across the region, including naval interdiction claims east of the strait, while trader consensus on near-term loss of Iranian authority remains low given the island’s limited size, lack of primary economic or chokepoint value, and absence of confirmed ground operations or occupation plans. Resolution hinges on verifiable governmental or military statements confirming a shift in primary control before the deadline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedFarsi Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
Farsi Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
$177,432 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
August 31
<1%
September 30
2%
$177,432 Vol.
August 31
$168,213 Vol.
<1%
September 30
$327 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Farsi Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.US military strikes in the ongoing Iran conflict have targeted strategic Persian Gulf islands such as Kharg, Greater Tunb, Abu Musa, and Qeshm to disrupt IRGC coastal defenses, missile sites, and oil infrastructure near the Strait of Hormuz, yet Farsi Island—an isolated IRGC Navy outpost used historically for small-boat operations—has not been struck or reported seized. Iranian forces continue to assert operational control across the region, including naval interdiction claims east of the strait, while trader consensus on near-term loss of Iranian authority remains low given the island’s limited size, lack of primary economic or chokepoint value, and absence of confirmed ground operations or occupation plans. Resolution hinges on verifiable governmental or military statements confirming a shift in primary control before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Farsi Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Aug 26, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volume
$177,432End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Farsi Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.US military strikes in the ongoing Iran conflict have targeted strategic Persian Gulf islands such as Kharg, Greater Tunb, Abu Musa, and Qeshm to disrupt IRGC coastal defenses, missile sites, and oil infrastructure near the Strait of Hormuz, yet Farsi Island—an isolated IRGC Navy outpost used historically for small-boat operations—has not been struck or reported seized. Iranian forces continue to assert operational control across the region, including naval interdiction claims east of the strait, while trader consensus on near-term loss of Iranian authority remains low given the island’s limited size, lack of primary economic or chokepoint value, and absence of confirmed ground operations or occupation plans. Resolution hinges on verifiable governmental or military statements confirming a shift in primary control before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Farsi Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$177,432End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US military strikes in the ongoing Iran conflict have targeted strategic Persian Gulf islands such as Kharg, Greater Tunb, Abu Musa, and Qeshm to disrupt IRGC coastal defenses, missile sites, and oil infrastructure near the Strait of Hormuz, yet Farsi Island—an isolated IRGC Navy outpost used historically for small-boat operations—has not been struck or reported seized. Iranian forces continue to assert operational control across the region, including naval interdiction claims east of the strait, while trader consensus on near-term loss of Iranian authority remains low given the island’s limited size, lack of primary economic or chokepoint value, and absence of confirmed ground operations or occupation plans. Resolution hinges on verifiable governmental or military statements confirming a shift in primary control before the deadline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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