Ashley Moody holds a commanding lead in the November 2026 special election for Florida’s U.S. Senate seat because she enters as the Republican appointee with strong name recognition from her prior role as attorney general, a decisive primary win, and consistent polling advantages of roughly eight to ten points over Angie Nixon. Florida’s Republican tilt, reflected in the state’s voting patterns since 2012 and recent midterm results, reinforces this positioning among traders. Nixon’s upset Democratic primary victory and platform focused on affordability and progressive priorities have not narrowed the gap in available surveys. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event, or unusually strong Democratic turnout in urban areas remain the primary factors that could still shift the outcome before Election Day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$107,891 Vol.
$107,891 Vol.
Ashley Moody (R)
93%
Angie Nixon (D)
8%
$107,891 Vol.
$107,891 Vol.
Ashley Moody (R)
$52,668 Vol.
93%
Angie Nixon (D)
$55,223 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Florida U.S. Senate election special election currently scheduled for November 3, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Ashley Moody holds a commanding lead in the November 2026 special election for Florida’s U.S. Senate seat because she enters as the Republican appointee with strong name recognition from her prior role as attorney general, a decisive primary win, and consistent polling advantages of roughly eight to ten points over Angie Nixon. Florida’s Republican tilt, reflected in the state’s voting patterns since 2012 and recent midterm results, reinforces this positioning among traders. Nixon’s upset Democratic primary victory and platform focused on affordability and progressive priorities have not narrowed the gap in available surveys. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event, or unusually strong Democratic turnout in urban areas remain the primary factors that could still shift the outcome before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Florida U.S. Senate election special election currently scheduled for November 3, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Market Opened: Oct 13, 2025, 4:41 PM ET
Volume
$107,891Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 4:41 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Florida U.S. Senate election special election currently scheduled for November 3, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Ashley Moody holds a commanding lead in the November 2026 special election for Florida’s U.S. Senate seat because she enters as the Republican appointee with strong name recognition from her prior role as attorney general, a decisive primary win, and consistent polling advantages of roughly eight to ten points over Angie Nixon. Florida’s Republican tilt, reflected in the state’s voting patterns since 2012 and recent midterm results, reinforces this positioning among traders. Nixon’s upset Democratic primary victory and platform focused on affordability and progressive priorities have not narrowed the gap in available surveys. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event, or unusually strong Democratic turnout in urban areas remain the primary factors that could still shift the outcome before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Florida U.S. Senate election special election currently scheduled for November 3, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$107,891Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 4:41 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Ashley Moody holds a commanding lead in the November 2026 special election for Florida’s U.S. Senate seat because she enters as the Republican appointee with strong name recognition from her prior role as attorney general, a decisive primary win, and consistent polling advantages of roughly eight to ten points over Angie Nixon. Florida’s Republican tilt, reflected in the state’s voting patterns since 2012 and recent midterm results, reinforces this positioning among traders. Nixon’s upset Democratic primary victory and platform focused on affordability and progressive priorities have not narrowed the gap in available surveys. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event, or unusually strong Democratic turnout in urban areas remain the primary factors that could still shift the outcome before Election Day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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