Ashley Moody holds a commanding position in the 2026 Florida special Senate election due to her status as the Republican incumbent in a state that has not elected a Democrat to the Senate since 2012 and where Donald Trump won by double digits in 2024. Appointed in 2025 after Marco Rubio’s resignation, Moody secured her party’s nomination with nearly 80% of the primary vote, enjoys strong endorsements including from Trump, and maintains a substantial fundraising edge exceeding $11 million compared to Angie Nixon’s under $1 million. Nixon’s August primary upset over Alex Vindman positioned her as the Democratic nominee, but polling averages show Moody ahead by roughly 8–10 points in a race rated Likely or Safe Republican by forecasters. Recent scrutiny over a Medicaid-related settlement has drawn Democratic attacks, yet no polling shifts have materialized. Late developments such as major scandals, health events, or sharp national political changes remain the primary variables that could narrow the gap before November 3.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$107,870 Vol.
$107,870 Vol.
Ashley Moody (R)
93%
Angie Nixon (D)
8%
$107,870 Vol.
$107,870 Vol.
Ashley Moody (R)
$52,646 Vol.
93%
Angie Nixon (D)
$55,223 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Florida U.S. Senate election special election currently scheduled for November 3, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Ashley Moody holds a commanding position in the 2026 Florida special Senate election due to her status as the Republican incumbent in a state that has not elected a Democrat to the Senate since 2012 and where Donald Trump won by double digits in 2024. Appointed in 2025 after Marco Rubio’s resignation, Moody secured her party’s nomination with nearly 80% of the primary vote, enjoys strong endorsements including from Trump, and maintains a substantial fundraising edge exceeding $11 million compared to Angie Nixon’s under $1 million. Nixon’s August primary upset over Alex Vindman positioned her as the Democratic nominee, but polling averages show Moody ahead by roughly 8–10 points in a race rated Likely or Safe Republican by forecasters. Recent scrutiny over a Medicaid-related settlement has drawn Democratic attacks, yet no polling shifts have materialized. Late developments such as major scandals, health events, or sharp national political changes remain the primary variables that could narrow the gap before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Florida U.S. Senate election special election currently scheduled for November 3, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Market Opened: Oct 13, 2025, 4:41 PM ET
Volume
$107,870Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 4:41 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Florida U.S. Senate election special election currently scheduled for November 3, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Ashley Moody holds a commanding position in the 2026 Florida special Senate election due to her status as the Republican incumbent in a state that has not elected a Democrat to the Senate since 2012 and where Donald Trump won by double digits in 2024. Appointed in 2025 after Marco Rubio’s resignation, Moody secured her party’s nomination with nearly 80% of the primary vote, enjoys strong endorsements including from Trump, and maintains a substantial fundraising edge exceeding $11 million compared to Angie Nixon’s under $1 million. Nixon’s August primary upset over Alex Vindman positioned her as the Democratic nominee, but polling averages show Moody ahead by roughly 8–10 points in a race rated Likely or Safe Republican by forecasters. Recent scrutiny over a Medicaid-related settlement has drawn Democratic attacks, yet no polling shifts have materialized. Late developments such as major scandals, health events, or sharp national political changes remain the primary variables that could narrow the gap before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Florida U.S. Senate election special election currently scheduled for November 3, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$107,870Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 4:41 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Ashley Moody holds a commanding position in the 2026 Florida special Senate election due to her status as the Republican incumbent in a state that has not elected a Democrat to the Senate since 2012 and where Donald Trump won by double digits in 2024. Appointed in 2025 after Marco Rubio’s resignation, Moody secured her party’s nomination with nearly 80% of the primary vote, enjoys strong endorsements including from Trump, and maintains a substantial fundraising edge exceeding $11 million compared to Angie Nixon’s under $1 million. Nixon’s August primary upset over Alex Vindman positioned her as the Democratic nominee, but polling averages show Moody ahead by roughly 8–10 points in a race rated Likely or Safe Republican by forecasters. Recent scrutiny over a Medicaid-related settlement has drawn Democratic attacks, yet no polling shifts have materialized. Late developments such as major scandals, health events, or sharp national political changes remain the primary variables that could narrow the gap before November 3.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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