Recent National Weather Service forecasts and ensemble model consensus point to a New York City high temperature on August 30 centered in the low-to-mid 80s°F, explaining the tight market spread between the 82-83°F (31%) and 84-85°F (27.5%) bins. Southwesterly flow under a surface high, combined with partly sunny conditions and only a 20% shower chance, supports daytime heating near seasonal norms of roughly 82°F. Minor differences in afternoon cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing, or convective timing introduce the primary uncertainty that keeps the two leading outcomes nearly even, while lower-probability warmer or cooler bins reflect outlier model solutions. Updated guidance ahead of the 48-hour window will likely tighten consensus further.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in NYC on August 30?
Highest temperature in NYC on August 30?
82-83°F 31%
84-85°F 28%
80-81°F 16%
86-87°F 9%
NEW
NEW
Aug 30, 2026
73°F or below
<1%
74-75°F
2%
76-77°F
3%
78-79°F
5%
80-81°F
16%
82-83°F
31%
84-85°F
28%
86-87°F
9%
88-89°F
4%
90-91°F
3%
92°F or higher
1%
82-83°F 31%
84-85°F 28%
80-81°F 16%
86-87°F 9%
NEW
NEW
Aug 30, 2026
73°F or below
$236 Vol.
<1%
74-75°F
$12 Vol.
2%
76-77°F
$0 Vol.
3%
78-79°F
$5 Vol.
5%
80-81°F
$288 Vol.
16%
82-83°F
$296 Vol.
31%
84-85°F
$192 Vol.
28%
86-87°F
$238 Vol.
9%
88-89°F
$17 Vol.
4%
90-91°F
$7 Vol.
3%
92°F or higher
$5 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service forecasts and ensemble model consensus point to a New York City high temperature on August 30 centered in the low-to-mid 80s°F, explaining the tight market spread between the 82-83°F (31%) and 84-85°F (27.5%) bins. Southwesterly flow under a surface high, combined with partly sunny conditions and only a 20% shower chance, supports daytime heating near seasonal norms of roughly 82°F. Minor differences in afternoon cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing, or convective timing introduce the primary uncertainty that keeps the two leading outcomes nearly even, while lower-probability warmer or cooler bins reflect outlier model solutions. Updated guidance ahead of the 48-hour window will likely tighten consensus further.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 28, 2026, 10:56 AM ET
Volume
$1,296End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 10:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klgaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service forecasts and ensemble model consensus point to a New York City high temperature on August 30 centered in the low-to-mid 80s°F, explaining the tight market spread between the 82-83°F (31%) and 84-85°F (27.5%) bins. Southwesterly flow under a surface high, combined with partly sunny conditions and only a 20% shower chance, supports daytime heating near seasonal norms of roughly 82°F. Minor differences in afternoon cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing, or convective timing introduce the primary uncertainty that keeps the two leading outcomes nearly even, while lower-probability warmer or cooler bins reflect outlier model solutions. Updated guidance ahead of the 48-hour window will likely tighten consensus further.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,296End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 10:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klgaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service forecasts and ensemble model consensus point to a New York City high temperature on August 30 centered in the low-to-mid 80s°F, explaining the tight market spread between the 82-83°F (31%) and 84-85°F (27.5%) bins. Southwesterly flow under a surface high, combined with partly sunny conditions and only a 20% shower chance, supports daytime heating near seasonal norms of roughly 82°F. Minor differences in afternoon cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing, or convective timing introduce the primary uncertainty that keeps the two leading outcomes nearly even, while lower-probability warmer or cooler bins reflect outlier model solutions. Updated guidance ahead of the 48-hour window will likely tighten consensus further.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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