**Houthis successfully target shipping on...?** Ongoing Houthi enforcement of a July 20 naval blockade targeting Saudi-linked vessels drives elevated implied probabilities for successful strikes through August 31. Recent kinetic attacks—including confirmed damage to Bahri VLCC Amzan on August 24 and earlier hits on NCC Ghazal and NCC Masa—plus a deadly August 11 strike on the Tihamah that killed crew, reflect sustained operational capability amid the U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict. These incidents have reduced Bab el-Mandeb and Suez transits, pushed tankers toward longer Africa routes, and supported higher freight rates and war-risk insurance premiums. With threat levels assessed as substantial by maritime authorities and no near-term de-escalation signals, trader consensus prices in continued targeting risk into month-end resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHouthis successfully target shipping on...?
Houthis successfully target shipping on...?
$265,656 Vol.
Aug 17, 2026
August 17
80%
August 26
2%
August 27
3%
August 28
1%
August 29
7%
August 30
14%
August 31
10%
$265,656 Vol.
August 17
$9,699 Vol.
80%
August 26
$1,565 Vol.
2%
August 27
$2,364 Vol.
3%
August 28
$3,013 Vol.
1%
August 29
$3,268 Vol.
7%
August 30
$2,427 Vol.
14%
August 31
$3,807 Vol.
10%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Houthi forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date AST (UTC+03:00). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Houthi forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Houthi operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM AST, material ambiguity remains as to whether the incident can be attributed to Houthi operatives, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, AST. If, at such time, attribution of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.**Houthis successfully target shipping on...?**
Ongoing Houthi enforcement of a July 20 naval blockade targeting Saudi-linked vessels drives elevated implied probabilities for successful strikes through August 31. Recent kinetic attacks—including confirmed damage to Bahri VLCC Amzan on August 24 and earlier hits on NCC Ghazal and NCC Masa—plus a deadly August 11 strike on the Tihamah that killed crew, reflect sustained operational capability amid the U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict. These incidents have reduced Bab el-Mandeb and Suez transits, pushed tankers toward longer Africa routes, and supported higher freight rates and war-risk insurance premiums. With threat levels assessed as substantial by maritime authorities and no near-term de-escalation signals, trader consensus prices in continued targeting risk into month-end resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Houthi forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date AST (UTC+03:00). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Houthi forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Houthi operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM AST, material ambiguity remains as to whether the incident can be attributed to Houthi operatives, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, AST. If, at such time, attribution of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Houthi forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Houthi operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM AST, material ambiguity remains as to whether the incident can be attributed to Houthi operatives, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, AST. If, at such time, attribution of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Market Opened: Jul 23, 2026, 10:39 AM ET
Volume
$265,656End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 23, 2026, 10:39 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Houthi forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date AST (UTC+03:00). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Houthi forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Houthi operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM AST, material ambiguity remains as to whether the incident can be attributed to Houthi operatives, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, AST. If, at such time, attribution of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.**Houthis successfully target shipping on...?**
Ongoing Houthi enforcement of a July 20 naval blockade targeting Saudi-linked vessels drives elevated implied probabilities for successful strikes through August 31. Recent kinetic attacks—including confirmed damage to Bahri VLCC Amzan on August 24 and earlier hits on NCC Ghazal and NCC Masa—plus a deadly August 11 strike on the Tihamah that killed crew, reflect sustained operational capability amid the U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict. These incidents have reduced Bab el-Mandeb and Suez transits, pushed tankers toward longer Africa routes, and supported higher freight rates and war-risk insurance premiums. With threat levels assessed as substantial by maritime authorities and no near-term de-escalation signals, trader consensus prices in continued targeting risk into month-end resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Houthi forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date AST (UTC+03:00). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Houthi forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Houthi operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM AST, material ambiguity remains as to whether the incident can be attributed to Houthi operatives, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, AST. If, at such time, attribution of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Houthi forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Houthi operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM AST, material ambiguity remains as to whether the incident can be attributed to Houthi operatives, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, AST. If, at such time, attribution of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Volume
$265,656End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 23, 2026, 10:39 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Houthis successfully target shipping on...?** Ongoing Houthi enforcement of a July 20 naval blockade targeting Saudi-linked vessels drives elevated implied probabilities for successful strikes through August 31. Recent kinetic attacks—including confirmed damage to Bahri VLCC Amzan on August 24 and earlier hits on NCC Ghazal and NCC Masa—plus a deadly August 11 strike on the Tihamah that killed crew, reflect sustained operational capability amid the U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict. These incidents have reduced Bab el-Mandeb and Suez transits, pushed tankers toward longer Africa routes, and supported higher freight rates and war-risk insurance premiums. With threat levels assessed as substantial by maritime authorities and no near-term de-escalation signals, trader consensus prices in continued targeting risk into month-end resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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