**Trader consensus heavily favors the 20–23 range for Democratic House members not seeking re-election in 2026, currently priced at 90.9%.** As of late August 2026, tracking by Ballotpedia and congressional retirement lists shows exactly 23 Democrats among the 60 total House incumbents not running again—15 retiring outright from public office and several others pursuing Senate bids or other roles. This count reflects a steady wave of announcements from senior members citing age, generational turnover, and redistricting pressures, including figures such as Nancy Pelosi, Steny Hoyer, Jan Schakowsky, Jerry Nadler, Danny Davis, Dwight Evans, Julia Brownley, Frederica Wilson, and Steve Cohen. The total has remained stable near this level for months, with no significant Democratic additions in recent weeks. Realistic paths to outcomes outside 20–23 remain narrow. A handful of additional late retirements or shifts by members eyeing other offices could push the figure to 24–27 before filing deadlines close in remaining states. Conversely, reversals, successful qualification for alternative races by those already counted, or primary defeats altering the final roster are possible but have not materialized in volume. The market reflects the skin-in-the-game assessment that the current roster of departures is largely locked in.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated20–23 91.1%
24–27 5.0%
40+ 3.7%
<20 2.4%
$54,373 Vol.
$54,373 Vol.
Aug 30, 2026
<20
2%
20–23
91%
24–27
5%
28–31
1%
32–35
<1%
36–39
<1%
40+
4%
20–23 91.1%
24–27 5.0%
40+ 3.7%
<20 2.4%
$54,373 Vol.
$54,373 Vol.
Aug 30, 2026
<20
$18,097 Vol.
2%
20–23
$13,166 Vol.
91%
24–27
$11,084 Vol.
5%
28–31
$2,434 Vol.
1%
32–35
$5,122 Vol.
<1%
36–39
$2,538 Vol.
<1%
40+
$1,932 Vol.
4%
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Trader consensus heavily favors the 20–23 range for Democratic House members not seeking re-election in 2026, currently priced at 90.9%.**
As of late August 2026, tracking by Ballotpedia and congressional retirement lists shows exactly 23 Democrats among the 60 total House incumbents not running again—15 retiring outright from public office and several others pursuing Senate bids or other roles. This count reflects a steady wave of announcements from senior members citing age, generational turnover, and redistricting pressures, including figures such as Nancy Pelosi, Steny Hoyer, Jan Schakowsky, Jerry Nadler, Danny Davis, Dwight Evans, Julia Brownley, Frederica Wilson, and Steve Cohen. The total has remained stable near this level for months, with no significant Democratic additions in recent weeks.
Realistic paths to outcomes outside 20–23 remain narrow. A handful of additional late retirements or shifts by members eyeing other offices could push the figure to 24–27 before filing deadlines close in remaining states. Conversely, reversals, successful qualification for alternative races by those already counted, or primary defeats altering the final roster are possible but have not materialized in volume. The market reflects the skin-in-the-game assessment that the current roster of departures is largely locked in.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ET
Volume
$54,373End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Trader consensus heavily favors the 20–23 range for Democratic House members not seeking re-election in 2026, currently priced at 90.9%.**
As of late August 2026, tracking by Ballotpedia and congressional retirement lists shows exactly 23 Democrats among the 60 total House incumbents not running again—15 retiring outright from public office and several others pursuing Senate bids or other roles. This count reflects a steady wave of announcements from senior members citing age, generational turnover, and redistricting pressures, including figures such as Nancy Pelosi, Steny Hoyer, Jan Schakowsky, Jerry Nadler, Danny Davis, Dwight Evans, Julia Brownley, Frederica Wilson, and Steve Cohen. The total has remained stable near this level for months, with no significant Democratic additions in recent weeks.
Realistic paths to outcomes outside 20–23 remain narrow. A handful of additional late retirements or shifts by members eyeing other offices could push the figure to 24–27 before filing deadlines close in remaining states. Conversely, reversals, successful qualification for alternative races by those already counted, or primary defeats altering the final roster are possible but have not materialized in volume. The market reflects the skin-in-the-game assessment that the current roster of departures is largely locked in.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$54,373End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...**Trader consensus heavily favors the 20–23 range for Democratic House members not seeking re-election in 2026, currently priced at 90.9%.** As of late August 2026, tracking by Ballotpedia and congressional retirement lists shows exactly 23 Democrats among the 60 total House incumbents not running again—15 retiring outright from public office and several others pursuing Senate bids or other roles. This count reflects a steady wave of announcements from senior members citing age, generational turnover, and redistricting pressures, including figures such as Nancy Pelosi, Steny Hoyer, Jan Schakowsky, Jerry Nadler, Danny Davis, Dwight Evans, Julia Brownley, Frederica Wilson, and Steve Cohen. The total has remained stable near this level for months, with no significant Democratic additions in recent weeks. Realistic paths to outcomes outside 20–23 remain narrow. A handful of additional late retirements or shifts by members eyeing other offices could push the figure to 24–27 before filing deadlines close in remaining states. Conversely, reversals, successful qualification for alternative races by those already counted, or primary defeats altering the final roster are possible but have not materialized in volume. The market reflects the skin-in-the-game assessment that the current roster of departures is largely locked in.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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