Democrats currently hold five of Ohio’s 15 U.S. House seats under the map used in 2024, with a new congressional map enacted in late 2025 shifting two competitive districts modestly toward Republicans while preserving three battlegrounds centered on incumbents Greg Landsman in the 1st, Marcy Kaptur in the 9th, and Emilia Sykes in the 13th. Nonpartisan ratings classify the 1st as leaning Democratic, the 13th as likely Democratic, and the 7th and 9th as toss-ups, leaving limited realistic paths for net gains beyond one additional seat. National midterm dynamics, including historical patterns of the out-party gaining ground, underpin trader consensus around six Democratic seats as the most probable outcome, though the adjusted map and limited number of true swing districts constrain upside potential and reinforce five as the next most likely result.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated6 49%
5 21%
7+ 18%
4 10%
$16,806 Vol.
$16,806 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
<2
<1%
2
<1%
3
3%
4
10%
5
21%
6
49%
7+
18%
6 49%
5 21%
7+ 18%
4 10%
$16,806 Vol.
$16,806 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
<2
$650 Vol.
<1%
2
$1,216 Vol.
<1%
3
$1,681 Vol.
3%
4
$4,001 Vol.
10%
5
$2,928 Vol.
21%
6
$3,620 Vol.
49%
7+
$2,710 Vol.
18%
This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in Ohio in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All Ohio US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.Democrats currently hold five of Ohio’s 15 U.S. House seats under the map used in 2024, with a new congressional map enacted in late 2025 shifting two competitive districts modestly toward Republicans while preserving three battlegrounds centered on incumbents Greg Landsman in the 1st, Marcy Kaptur in the 9th, and Emilia Sykes in the 13th. Nonpartisan ratings classify the 1st as leaning Democratic, the 13th as likely Democratic, and the 7th and 9th as toss-ups, leaving limited realistic paths for net gains beyond one additional seat. National midterm dynamics, including historical patterns of the out-party gaining ground, underpin trader consensus around six Democratic seats as the most probable outcome, though the adjusted map and limited number of true swing districts constrain upside potential and reinforce five as the next most likely result.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in Ohio in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All Ohio US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
All Ohio US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Aug 11, 2026, 10:18 AM ET
Volume
$16,806End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Aug 11, 2026, 10:18 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in Ohio in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All Ohio US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.Democrats currently hold five of Ohio’s 15 U.S. House seats under the map used in 2024, with a new congressional map enacted in late 2025 shifting two competitive districts modestly toward Republicans while preserving three battlegrounds centered on incumbents Greg Landsman in the 1st, Marcy Kaptur in the 9th, and Emilia Sykes in the 13th. Nonpartisan ratings classify the 1st as leaning Democratic, the 13th as likely Democratic, and the 7th and 9th as toss-ups, leaving limited realistic paths for net gains beyond one additional seat. National midterm dynamics, including historical patterns of the out-party gaining ground, underpin trader consensus around six Democratic seats as the most probable outcome, though the adjusted map and limited number of true swing districts constrain upside potential and reinforce five as the next most likely result.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in Ohio in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All Ohio US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
All Ohio US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$16,806End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Aug 11, 2026, 10:18 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Democrats currently hold five of Ohio’s 15 U.S. House seats under the map used in 2024, with a new congressional map enacted in late 2025 shifting two competitive districts modestly toward Republicans while preserving three battlegrounds centered on incumbents Greg Landsman in the 1st, Marcy Kaptur in the 9th, and Emilia Sykes in the 13th. Nonpartisan ratings classify the 1st as leaning Democratic, the 13th as likely Democratic, and the 7th and 9th as toss-ups, leaving limited realistic paths for net gains beyond one additional seat. National midterm dynamics, including historical patterns of the out-party gaining ground, underpin trader consensus around six Democratic seats as the most probable outcome, though the adjusted map and limited number of true swing districts constrain upside potential and reinforce five as the next most likely result.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions