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Geopolitics·Oil

How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of August 24?

icon for How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of August 24?
Geopolitics·Oil

How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of August 24?

Aug 30

Sep 6

Aug 30

Sep 6

25-49 89%

<25 8%

50-74 3.9%

100+ <1%

Polymarket

$12,804 Vol.

25-49 89%

<25 8%

50-74 3.9%

100+ <1%

Polymarket

$12,804 Vol.

<25

$5,111 Vol.

8%

25-49

$4,108 Vol.

89%

50-74

$1,215 Vol.

4%

75-99

$956 Vol.

1%

100+

$1,414 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 24, 2026, through August 30, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Heightened security risks from the ongoing Iran conflict, including IRGC enforcement actions, mine threats, and attacks on vessels such as the Kuwaiti tanker Al Salam II on August 26, combined with war-risk insurance premiums at 40 times normal levels, have driven commercial transits through the Strait of Hormuz to just 4% of pre-crisis norms. Recent IMF PortWatch data recorded only three transits on August 23 and single-digit daily volumes in the preceding days, positioning the 25-49 weekly outcome as the dominant market-implied probability at 89%. Major carriers continue rerouting, while limited dark-fleet activity and U.S. facilitation have not materially lifted overall throughput.

This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 24, 2026, through August 30, 2026, inclusive.

Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.

This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.

In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.

Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.

The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volume
$12,804
End Date
Aug 30, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 3:05 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 24, 2026, through August 30, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 24, 2026, through August 30, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Heightened security risks from the ongoing Iran conflict, including IRGC enforcement actions, mine threats, and attacks on vessels such as the Kuwaiti tanker Al Salam II on August 26, combined with war-risk insurance premiums at 40 times normal levels, have driven commercial transits through the Strait of Hormuz to just 4% of pre-crisis norms. Recent IMF PortWatch data recorded only three transits on August 23 and single-digit daily volumes in the preceding days, positioning the 25-49 weekly outcome as the dominant market-implied probability at 89%. Major carriers continue rerouting, while limited dark-fleet activity and U.S. facilitation have not materially lifted overall throughput.

This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 24, 2026, through August 30, 2026, inclusive.

Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.

This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.

In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.

Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.

The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volume
$12,804
End Date
Aug 30, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 3:05 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 24, 2026, through August 30, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of August 24?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 5 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "25-49" at 89%, followed by "<25" at 8%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 89¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 89% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of August 24?" has generated $12.8K in total trading volume since the market launched on Aug 21, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of August 24?," browse the 5 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of August 24?" is "25-49" at 89%, meaning the market assigns a 89% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "<25" at 8%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of August 24?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.