The Illinois 4th congressional district’s D+17 partisan voter index and consistent Democratic margins exceeding 40 points in recent cycles underpin the 95.7% implied probability for a Democratic win. Incumbent Chuy García’s retirement left an open seat rated Solid or Safe Democratic by Cook, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball. Patty Garcia, the former chief of staff and unopposed Democratic nominee, holds a clear lead in the limited available polling despite a large undecided share, while Republican Lupe Castillo trails significantly. Multiple independents, including Chris Getty, have entered the race and could fragment the vote, yet the district’s underlying partisan composition and historical results limit any realistic path for a non-Democratic victory absent major late developments such as candidate disqualifications or turnout anomalies before the November 3 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedIL-04 House Election Winner
IL-04 House Election Winner
$59,437 Vol.
$59,437 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
96%
Republican Party
4%
$59,437 Vol.
$59,437 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
$43,338 Vol.
96%
Republican Party
$16,099 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Illinois 4th congressional district’s D+17 partisan voter index and consistent Democratic margins exceeding 40 points in recent cycles underpin the 95.7% implied probability for a Democratic win. Incumbent Chuy García’s retirement left an open seat rated Solid or Safe Democratic by Cook, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball. Patty Garcia, the former chief of staff and unopposed Democratic nominee, holds a clear lead in the limited available polling despite a large undecided share, while Republican Lupe Castillo trails significantly. Multiple independents, including Chris Getty, have entered the race and could fragment the vote, yet the district’s underlying partisan composition and historical results limit any realistic path for a non-Democratic victory absent major late developments such as candidate disqualifications or turnout anomalies before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
Volume
$59,437End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Illinois 4th congressional district’s D+17 partisan voter index and consistent Democratic margins exceeding 40 points in recent cycles underpin the 95.7% implied probability for a Democratic win. Incumbent Chuy García’s retirement left an open seat rated Solid or Safe Democratic by Cook, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball. Patty Garcia, the former chief of staff and unopposed Democratic nominee, holds a clear lead in the limited available polling despite a large undecided share, while Republican Lupe Castillo trails significantly. Multiple independents, including Chris Getty, have entered the race and could fragment the vote, yet the district’s underlying partisan composition and historical results limit any realistic path for a non-Democratic victory absent major late developments such as candidate disqualifications or turnout anomalies before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$59,437End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The Illinois 4th congressional district’s D+17 partisan voter index and consistent Democratic margins exceeding 40 points in recent cycles underpin the 95.7% implied probability for a Democratic win. Incumbent Chuy García’s retirement left an open seat rated Solid or Safe Democratic by Cook, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball. Patty Garcia, the former chief of staff and unopposed Democratic nominee, holds a clear lead in the limited available polling despite a large undecided share, while Republican Lupe Castillo trails significantly. Multiple independents, including Chris Getty, have entered the race and could fragment the vote, yet the district’s underlying partisan composition and historical results limit any realistic path for a non-Democratic victory absent major late developments such as candidate disqualifications or turnout anomalies before the November 3 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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