Incumbent Democrat Mike Quigley secured his party's nomination in the March 2026 primary with roughly 65 percent of the vote in Illinois's 5th congressional district, while Republican nominee Tommy Hanson prevailed in a low-turnout GOP contest. The seat carries a strong Democratic lean reflected in its D+19 partisan voter index and Quigley's 69 percent victory margin in 2024. Nonpartisan forecasters uniformly classify the race as solid or safe Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election. These structural factors, combined with the absence of competitive polling shifts or late-breaking developments, underpin trader consensus that heavily favors the Democratic nominee. A major scandal, unexpected national partisan wave, or sharp turnout anomaly would be required to meaningfully alter the current positioning.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedIL-05 House Election Winner
IL-05 House Election Winner
$25,176 Vol.
$25,176 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
96%
Republican Party
5%
$25,176 Vol.
$25,176 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
$8,881 Vol.
96%
Republican Party
$16,295 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Mike Quigley secured his party's nomination in the March 2026 primary with roughly 65 percent of the vote in Illinois's 5th congressional district, while Republican nominee Tommy Hanson prevailed in a low-turnout GOP contest. The seat carries a strong Democratic lean reflected in its D+19 partisan voter index and Quigley's 69 percent victory margin in 2024. Nonpartisan forecasters uniformly classify the race as solid or safe Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election. These structural factors, combined with the absence of competitive polling shifts or late-breaking developments, underpin trader consensus that heavily favors the Democratic nominee. A major scandal, unexpected national partisan wave, or sharp turnout anomaly would be required to meaningfully alter the current positioning.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volume
$25,176End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Mike Quigley secured his party's nomination in the March 2026 primary with roughly 65 percent of the vote in Illinois's 5th congressional district, while Republican nominee Tommy Hanson prevailed in a low-turnout GOP contest. The seat carries a strong Democratic lean reflected in its D+19 partisan voter index and Quigley's 69 percent victory margin in 2024. Nonpartisan forecasters uniformly classify the race as solid or safe Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election. These structural factors, combined with the absence of competitive polling shifts or late-breaking developments, underpin trader consensus that heavily favors the Democratic nominee. A major scandal, unexpected national partisan wave, or sharp turnout anomaly would be required to meaningfully alter the current positioning.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$25,176End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Mike Quigley secured his party's nomination in the March 2026 primary with roughly 65 percent of the vote in Illinois's 5th congressional district, while Republican nominee Tommy Hanson prevailed in a low-turnout GOP contest. The seat carries a strong Democratic lean reflected in its D+19 partisan voter index and Quigley's 69 percent victory margin in 2024. Nonpartisan forecasters uniformly classify the race as solid or safe Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election. These structural factors, combined with the absence of competitive polling shifts or late-breaking developments, underpin trader consensus that heavily favors the Democratic nominee. A major scandal, unexpected national partisan wave, or sharp turnout anomaly would be required to meaningfully alter the current positioning.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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