Juliana Stratton secured the Democratic nomination in the March 2026 primary with strong backing from Governor JB Pritzker and performed well among Chicago and downstate voters, positioning her as the clear favorite in a state that has not elected a Republican to the Senate since 1978 or won any statewide race since 2014. Forecasters rate the race Solid Democratic or Safe Democratic, reflecting Illinois’s consistent partisan lean and the limited statewide infrastructure for Republican candidates. Don Tracy, the GOP nominee and former state party chair, faces structural headwinds in fundraising reach and voter coalition building despite his primary victory. Trader consensus at these levels aligns with historical base rates for open Democratic seats in deep-blue states, where late shifts would require major unforeseen developments such as candidate withdrawal, significant scandals, or sharp national realignment before November 3.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$31,812 Vol.
$31,812 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Juliana Stratton (D)
96%
Don Tracy (R)
4%
$31,812 Vol.
$31,812 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Juliana Stratton (D)
$16,810 Vol.
96%
Don Tracy (R)
$15,003 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Illinois U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Juliana Stratton secured the Democratic nomination in the March 2026 primary with strong backing from Governor JB Pritzker and performed well among Chicago and downstate voters, positioning her as the clear favorite in a state that has not elected a Republican to the Senate since 1978 or won any statewide race since 2014. Forecasters rate the race Solid Democratic or Safe Democratic, reflecting Illinois’s consistent partisan lean and the limited statewide infrastructure for Republican candidates. Don Tracy, the GOP nominee and former state party chair, faces structural headwinds in fundraising reach and voter coalition building despite his primary victory. Trader consensus at these levels aligns with historical base rates for open Democratic seats in deep-blue states, where late shifts would require major unforeseen developments such as candidate withdrawal, significant scandals, or sharp national realignment before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Illinois U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Market Opened: Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ET
Volume
$31,812End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Illinois U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Juliana Stratton secured the Democratic nomination in the March 2026 primary with strong backing from Governor JB Pritzker and performed well among Chicago and downstate voters, positioning her as the clear favorite in a state that has not elected a Republican to the Senate since 1978 or won any statewide race since 2014. Forecasters rate the race Solid Democratic or Safe Democratic, reflecting Illinois’s consistent partisan lean and the limited statewide infrastructure for Republican candidates. Don Tracy, the GOP nominee and former state party chair, faces structural headwinds in fundraising reach and voter coalition building despite his primary victory. Trader consensus at these levels aligns with historical base rates for open Democratic seats in deep-blue states, where late shifts would require major unforeseen developments such as candidate withdrawal, significant scandals, or sharp national realignment before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Illinois U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$31,812End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Juliana Stratton secured the Democratic nomination in the March 2026 primary with strong backing from Governor JB Pritzker and performed well among Chicago and downstate voters, positioning her as the clear favorite in a state that has not elected a Republican to the Senate since 1978 or won any statewide race since 2014. Forecasters rate the race Solid Democratic or Safe Democratic, reflecting Illinois’s consistent partisan lean and the limited statewide infrastructure for Republican candidates. Don Tracy, the GOP nominee and former state party chair, faces structural headwinds in fundraising reach and voter coalition building despite his primary victory. Trader consensus at these levels aligns with historical base rates for open Democratic seats in deep-blue states, where late shifts would require major unforeseen developments such as candidate withdrawal, significant scandals, or sharp national realignment before November 3.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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