Iran’s post-war leadership faces intensifying internal divisions that shape trader views on coup-related markets. Following the February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, Mojtaba Khamenei’s appointment has been followed by his prolonged public absence, enabling accusations from hardline factions including the Paydari Front that President Masoud Pezeshkian, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, and Abbas Araghchi are executing a soft coup. These claims center on elevating the Supreme National Security Council’s role in negotiations and security decisions while diminishing the supreme leader’s and parliament’s influence. In July and August 2026, lawmakers such as Mahmoud Nabavian and Kamran Ghazanfari publicly warned of political coups, and the judiciary chief highlighted risks of sedition and infiltration. Reports also note a military junta consolidating authority, with recent billboards featuring generals over traditional religious symbols. These factional tensions, alongside economic pressures, remain the main drivers of market probabilities around any coup attempt.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$2,122,938 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
December 31
9%
$2,122,938 Vol.
December 31
$81,713 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Iran’s post-war leadership faces intensifying internal divisions that shape trader views on coup-related markets. Following the February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, Mojtaba Khamenei’s appointment has been followed by his prolonged public absence, enabling accusations from hardline factions including the Paydari Front that President Masoud Pezeshkian, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, and Abbas Araghchi are executing a soft coup. These claims center on elevating the Supreme National Security Council’s role in negotiations and security decisions while diminishing the supreme leader’s and parliament’s influence. In July and August 2026, lawmakers such as Mahmoud Nabavian and Kamran Ghazanfari publicly warned of political coups, and the judiciary chief highlighted risks of sedition and infiltration. Reports also note a military junta consolidating authority, with recent billboards featuring generals over traditional religious symbols. These factional tensions, alongside economic pressures, remain the main drivers of market probabilities around any coup attempt.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ET
Volume
$2,122,938End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Iran’s post-war leadership faces intensifying internal divisions that shape trader views on coup-related markets. Following the February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, Mojtaba Khamenei’s appointment has been followed by his prolonged public absence, enabling accusations from hardline factions including the Paydari Front that President Masoud Pezeshkian, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, and Abbas Araghchi are executing a soft coup. These claims center on elevating the Supreme National Security Council’s role in negotiations and security decisions while diminishing the supreme leader’s and parliament’s influence. In July and August 2026, lawmakers such as Mahmoud Nabavian and Kamran Ghazanfari publicly warned of political coups, and the judiciary chief highlighted risks of sedition and infiltration. Reports also note a military junta consolidating authority, with recent billboards featuring generals over traditional religious symbols. These factional tensions, alongside economic pressures, remain the main drivers of market probabilities around any coup attempt.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$2,122,938End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran’s post-war leadership faces intensifying internal divisions that shape trader views on coup-related markets. Following the February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, Mojtaba Khamenei’s appointment has been followed by his prolonged public absence, enabling accusations from hardline factions including the Paydari Front that President Masoud Pezeshkian, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, and Abbas Araghchi are executing a soft coup. These claims center on elevating the Supreme National Security Council’s role in negotiations and security decisions while diminishing the supreme leader’s and parliament’s influence. In July and August 2026, lawmakers such as Mahmoud Nabavian and Kamran Ghazanfari publicly warned of political coups, and the judiciary chief highlighted risks of sedition and infiltration. Reports also note a military junta consolidating authority, with recent billboards featuring generals over traditional religious symbols. These factional tensions, alongside economic pressures, remain the main drivers of market probabilities around any coup attempt.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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