**Recent incidents in the Strait of Hormuz continue to shape trader views on whether Iranian forces will conduct kinetic strikes or seizures against commercial vessels on specific dates.** Multiple attacks occurred in August 2026, including strikes on the Liberian-flagged bulk carrier Minoan Dignity (fatality reported), seizure of the tanker Amara near Qeshm Island, the Kuwaiti-flagged Al Salam II, and an unidentified tanker on August 25. These followed earlier July strikes on vessels including Al Rekayyat, Wedyan, and Cyprus Prosperity. IRGC actions aim to enforce preferred transit corridors and counter perceived U.S. naval pressure, while Houthi threats extend risks into the Red Sea. U.S. responses have included targeted strikes on Iranian military assets. Ongoing volatility, route disputes with Oman, and enforcement of sanctions keep the probability of further incidents elevated, with resolution hinging on confirmed attribution and timing within defined windows.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedIran successfully targets shipping on...?
Iran successfully targets shipping on...?
$193,629 Vol.
Aug 27, 2026
August 17
59%
August 18
41%
August 26
2%
August 27
5%
August 28
7%
August 29
18%
August 30
17%
August 31
10%
$193,629 Vol.
August 17
$6,372 Vol.
59%
August 18
$2,542 Vol.
41%
August 26
$1,508 Vol.
2%
August 27
$2,711 Vol.
5%
August 28
$1,715 Vol.
7%
August 29
$3,375 Vol.
18%
August 30
$860 Vol.
17%
August 31
$3,923 Vol.
10%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
**Recent incidents in the Strait of Hormuz continue to shape trader views on whether Iranian forces will conduct kinetic strikes or seizures against commercial vessels on specific dates.** Multiple attacks occurred in August 2026, including strikes on the Liberian-flagged bulk carrier Minoan Dignity (fatality reported), seizure of the tanker Amara near Qeshm Island, the Kuwaiti-flagged Al Salam II, and an unidentified tanker on August 25. These followed earlier July strikes on vessels including Al Rekayyat, Wedyan, and Cyprus Prosperity.
IRGC actions aim to enforce preferred transit corridors and counter perceived U.S. naval pressure, while Houthi threats extend risks into the Red Sea. U.S. responses have included targeted strikes on Iranian military assets. Ongoing volatility, route disputes with Oman, and enforcement of sanctions keep the probability of further incidents elevated, with resolution hinging on confirmed attribution and timing within defined windows.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Market Opened: Jul 29, 2026, 3:11 PM ET
Volume
$193,629End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 3:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
**Recent incidents in the Strait of Hormuz continue to shape trader views on whether Iranian forces will conduct kinetic strikes or seizures against commercial vessels on specific dates.** Multiple attacks occurred in August 2026, including strikes on the Liberian-flagged bulk carrier Minoan Dignity (fatality reported), seizure of the tanker Amara near Qeshm Island, the Kuwaiti-flagged Al Salam II, and an unidentified tanker on August 25. These followed earlier July strikes on vessels including Al Rekayyat, Wedyan, and Cyprus Prosperity.
IRGC actions aim to enforce preferred transit corridors and counter perceived U.S. naval pressure, while Houthi threats extend risks into the Red Sea. U.S. responses have included targeted strikes on Iranian military assets. Ongoing volatility, route disputes with Oman, and enforcement of sanctions keep the probability of further incidents elevated, with resolution hinging on confirmed attribution and timing within defined windows.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Volume
$193,629End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 3:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Recent incidents in the Strait of Hormuz continue to shape trader views on whether Iranian forces will conduct kinetic strikes or seizures against commercial vessels on specific dates.** Multiple attacks occurred in August 2026, including strikes on the Liberian-flagged bulk carrier Minoan Dignity (fatality reported), seizure of the tanker Amara near Qeshm Island, the Kuwaiti-flagged Al Salam II, and an unidentified tanker on August 25. These followed earlier July strikes on vessels including Al Rekayyat, Wedyan, and Cyprus Prosperity. IRGC actions aim to enforce preferred transit corridors and counter perceived U.S. naval pressure, while Houthi threats extend risks into the Red Sea. U.S. responses have included targeted strikes on Iranian military assets. Ongoing volatility, route disputes with Oman, and enforcement of sanctions keep the probability of further incidents elevated, with resolution hinging on confirmed attribution and timing within defined windows.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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