Jefferies Financial Group (JEF) is scheduled to report fiscal Q3 2026 results on September 28 after the close, with consensus EPS estimates clustered between $0.85 and $0.97—implying a year-over-year decline from the $1.01 posted in the prior-year quarter. Trader sentiment reflected in the 68% probability against a beat draws primarily from the Q2 miss, where reported EPS of $1.02–1.03 fell short of $1.16–1.21 expectations despite record investment banking revenues. Asset management weakness and elevated compensation tied to advisory gains continue to pressure bottom-line results, while recent analyst actions, including lowered price targets from Oppenheimer and UBS, signal tempered optimism even as M&A and equity underwriting activity shows sequential strength. Market-implied odds price in these execution risks ahead of the release.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated32% chance
NEW
NEW
Sep 30, 2026
32% chance
NEW
NEW
Sep 30, 2026
As of market creation, Jefferies is estimated to release earnings on September 30, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Jefferies's GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $0.95 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jefferies reports GAAP EPS greater than $0.95 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents.
If Jefferies releases earnings without GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve to “No”.
If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.”
Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024).
Note: The strike prices used in these markets reflect the selected street consensus estimate for GAAP EPS as of market creation.
Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.
Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS.
Note: GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless this is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated.
Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.
Jefferies Financial Group (JEF) is scheduled to report fiscal Q3 2026 results on September 28 after the close, with consensus EPS estimates clustered between $0.85 and $0.97—implying a year-over-year decline from the $1.01 posted in the prior-year quarter. Trader sentiment reflected in the 68% probability against a beat draws primarily from the Q2 miss, where reported EPS of $1.02–1.03 fell short of $1.16–1.21 expectations despite record investment banking revenues. Asset management weakness and elevated compensation tied to advisory gains continue to pressure bottom-line results, while recent analyst actions, including lowered price targets from Oppenheimer and UBS, signal tempered optimism even as M&A and equity underwriting activity shows sequential strength. Market-implied odds price in these execution risks ahead of the release.
As of market creation, Jefferies is estimated to release earnings on September 30, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Jefferies's GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $0.95 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jefferies reports GAAP EPS greater than $0.95 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents.
If Jefferies releases earnings without GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve to “No”.
If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.”
Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024).
Note: The strike prices used in these markets reflect the selected street consensus estimate for GAAP EPS as of market creation.
Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.
Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS.
Note: GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless this is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated.
Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.
If Jefferies releases earnings without GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve to “No”.
If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.”
Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024).
Note: The strike prices used in these markets reflect the selected street consensus estimate for GAAP EPS as of market creation.
Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.
Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS.
Note: GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless this is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated.
Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.
Market Opened: Sep 16, 2026, 3:57 PM ET
Volume
$1,114End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Sep 16, 2026, 3:57 PM ETResolution Source
https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/JEF/earningsResolver
0x65070BE91...As of market creation, Jefferies is estimated to release earnings on September 30, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Jefferies's GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $0.95 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jefferies reports GAAP EPS greater than $0.95 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents.
If Jefferies releases earnings without GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve to “No”.
If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.”
Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024).
Note: The strike prices used in these markets reflect the selected street consensus estimate for GAAP EPS as of market creation.
Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.
Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS.
Note: GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless this is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated.
Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.
Jefferies Financial Group (JEF) is scheduled to report fiscal Q3 2026 results on September 28 after the close, with consensus EPS estimates clustered between $0.85 and $0.97—implying a year-over-year decline from the $1.01 posted in the prior-year quarter. Trader sentiment reflected in the 68% probability against a beat draws primarily from the Q2 miss, where reported EPS of $1.02–1.03 fell short of $1.16–1.21 expectations despite record investment banking revenues. Asset management weakness and elevated compensation tied to advisory gains continue to pressure bottom-line results, while recent analyst actions, including lowered price targets from Oppenheimer and UBS, signal tempered optimism even as M&A and equity underwriting activity shows sequential strength. Market-implied odds price in these execution risks ahead of the release.
As of market creation, Jefferies is estimated to release earnings on September 30, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Jefferies's GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $0.95 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jefferies reports GAAP EPS greater than $0.95 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents.
If Jefferies releases earnings without GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve to “No”.
If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.”
Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024).
Note: The strike prices used in these markets reflect the selected street consensus estimate for GAAP EPS as of market creation.
Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.
Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS.
Note: GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless this is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated.
Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.
If Jefferies releases earnings without GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve to “No”.
If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.”
Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024).
Note: The strike prices used in these markets reflect the selected street consensus estimate for GAAP EPS as of market creation.
Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.
Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS.
Note: GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless this is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated.
Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.
Volume
$1,114End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Sep 16, 2026, 3:57 PM ETResolution Source
https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/JEF/earningsResolver
0x65070BE91...Jefferies Financial Group (JEF) is scheduled to report fiscal Q3 2026 results on September 28 after the close, with consensus EPS estimates clustered between $0.85 and $0.97—implying a year-over-year decline from the $1.01 posted in the prior-year quarter. Trader sentiment reflected in the 68% probability against a beat draws primarily from the Q2 miss, where reported EPS of $1.02–1.03 fell short of $1.16–1.21 expectations despite record investment banking revenues. Asset management weakness and elevated compensation tied to advisory gains continue to pressure bottom-line results, while recent analyst actions, including lowered price targets from Oppenheimer and UBS, signal tempered optimism even as M&A and equity underwriting activity shows sequential strength. Market-implied odds price in these execution risks ahead of the release.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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