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icon for OpenAI announces bankruptcy by...?

OpenAI announces bankruptcy by...?

icon for OpenAI announces bankruptcy by...?

OpenAI announces bankruptcy by...?

NEW
Dec 31, 2027
Polymarket

$0.00 Vol.

Polymarket
icon for December 31, 2027

December 31, 2027

$0 Vol.

9%

icon for December 31, 2028

December 31, 2028

$0 Vol.

49%

icon for December 31, 2029

December 31, 2029

$0 Vol.

49%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI announces that it will file for bankruptcy or has filed for bankruptcy of any variety by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. An announcement will suffice for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of if or when the actual filing occurs. The announcement must be made through any of their official or verified channels, as a recorded or written statement by their CEO, legal representation, or other individual or team which officially represents OpenAI. A definitive consensus of credible reporting may also be used.OpenAI's recent discussions with investors about a potential $1.2 trillion valuation funding round, following its $852 billion March raise, reflect strong trader confidence that the company faces no near-term bankruptcy risk despite elevated compute costs and cash burn rates exceeding $3.7 billion in Q1 2026. Revenue growth from large language models like GPT-6 Astra and Astra for Law, now serving over one billion ChatGPT users, has pushed annualized figures past $40 billion, offsetting losses and supporting ample cash reserves above $70 billion. CEO Sam Altman's confirmation that an IPO is off the table for 2026, citing artificial intelligence safety priorities, has not disrupted capital access or competitive positioning against peers. Upcoming catalysts include further model releases and regulatory alignment efforts that could influence long-term runway without immediate solvency threats.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI announces that it will file for bankruptcy or has filed for bankruptcy of any variety by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. An announcement will suffice for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of if or when the actual filing occurs. The announcement must be made through any of their official or verified channels, as a recorded or written statement by their CEO, legal representation, or other individual or team which officially represents OpenAI. A definitive consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI announces that it will file for bankruptcy or has filed for bankruptcy of any variety by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. An announcement will suffice for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of if or when the actual filing occurs. The announcement must be made through any of their official or verified channels, as a recorded or written statement by their CEO, legal representation, or other individual or team which officially represents OpenAI. A definitive consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$0
End Date
Jan 1, 2030
Market Opened
Sep 17, 2026, 6:28 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI announces that it will file for bankruptcy or has filed for bankruptcy of any variety by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. An announcement will suffice for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of if or when the actual filing occurs. The announcement must be made through any of their official or verified channels, as a recorded or written statement by their CEO, legal representation, or other individual or team which officially represents OpenAI. A definitive consensus of credible reporting may also be used.OpenAI's recent discussions with investors about a potential $1.2 trillion valuation funding round, following its $852 billion March raise, reflect strong trader confidence that the company faces no near-term bankruptcy risk despite elevated compute costs and cash burn rates exceeding $3.7 billion in Q1 2026. Revenue growth from large language models like GPT-6 Astra and Astra for Law, now serving over one billion ChatGPT users, has pushed annualized figures past $40 billion, offsetting losses and supporting ample cash reserves above $70 billion. CEO Sam Altman's confirmation that an IPO is off the table for 2026, citing artificial intelligence safety priorities, has not disrupted capital access or competitive positioning against peers. Upcoming catalysts include further model releases and regulatory alignment efforts that could influence long-term runway without immediate solvency threats.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI announces that it will file for bankruptcy or has filed for bankruptcy of any variety by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. An announcement will suffice for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of if or when the actual filing occurs. The announcement must be made through any of their official or verified channels, as a recorded or written statement by their CEO, legal representation, or other individual or team which officially represents OpenAI. A definitive consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI announces that it will file for bankruptcy or has filed for bankruptcy of any variety by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. An announcement will suffice for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of if or when the actual filing occurs. The announcement must be made through any of their official or verified channels, as a recorded or written statement by their CEO, legal representation, or other individual or team which officially represents OpenAI. A definitive consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$0
End Date
Jan 1, 2030
Market Opened
Sep 17, 2026, 6:28 PM ET

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Frequently Asked Questions

"OpenAI announces bankruptcy by...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 3 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "December 31, 2028" at 50%, followed by "December 31, 2029" at 50%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 50¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 50% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"OpenAI announces bankruptcy by...?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Sep 17, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "OpenAI announces bankruptcy by...?," browse the 3 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "OpenAI announces bankruptcy by...?" is "December 31, 2028" at 50%, meaning the market assigns a 50% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "December 31, 2029" at 50%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "OpenAI announces bankruptcy by...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.