The even 50% odds across dozens of AI labs reflect intense uncertainty over which company will claim the third-highest ranking on LMArena’s text arena leaderboard with style control enabled by November 30. This setting adjusts for response length and formatting to isolate core capabilities, where narrow benchmark gaps separate contenders. Chinese labs such as Alibaba, DeepSeek, and ByteDance continue rapid iteration on models like Qwen, while U.S. players including Google Gemini, Anthropic Claude, Meta Llama, and OpenAI push scaling and enterprise features. Recent internal access grants and interface updates have not yet produced decisive leaderboard shifts. Any new model release, capability demonstration, or evaluation tweak before resolution could reorder the tightly packed middle tier.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMoonshot 27%
Anthropic 26%
Alibaba 26%
Z.ai 26%
NEW
NEW
Nov 30, 2026
Moonshot
27%
Anthropic
26%
Alibaba
26%
Z.ai
26%
DeepSeek
26%
Tencent
26%
Microsoft
26%
Mistral
26%
Meta
14%
SpaceXAI
14%
Xiaomi
14%
14%
OpenAI
14%
StepFun
14%
Baidu
9%
ByteDance
9%
MiniMax
9%
Thinky
9%
Meituan
9%
Amazon
9%
Nvidia
9%
Moonshot 27%
Anthropic 26%
Alibaba 26%
Z.ai 26%
NEW
NEW
Nov 30, 2026
Moonshot
$0 Vol.
27%
Anthropic
$0 Vol.
26%
Alibaba
$0 Vol.
26%
Z.ai
$0 Vol.
26%
DeepSeek
$0 Vol.
26%
Tencent
$0 Vol.
26%
Microsoft
$0 Vol.
26%
Mistral
$0 Vol.
26%
Meta
$0 Vol.
14%
SpaceXAI
$0 Vol.
14%
Xiaomi
$0 Vol.
14%
$0 Vol.
14%
OpenAI
$0 Vol.
14%
StepFun
$0 Vol.
14%
Baidu
$0 Vol.
9%
ByteDance
$0 Vol.
9%
MiniMax
$0 Vol.
9%
Thinky
$0 Vol.
9%
Meituan
$0 Vol.
9%
Amazon
$0 Vol.
9%
Nvidia
$0 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".The even 50% odds across dozens of AI labs reflect intense uncertainty over which company will claim the third-highest ranking on LMArena’s text arena leaderboard with style control enabled by November 30. This setting adjusts for response length and formatting to isolate core capabilities, where narrow benchmark gaps separate contenders. Chinese labs such as Alibaba, DeepSeek, and ByteDance continue rapid iteration on models like Qwen, while U.S. players including Google Gemini, Anthropic Claude, Meta Llama, and OpenAI push scaling and enterprise features. Recent internal access grants and interface updates have not yet produced decisive leaderboard shifts. Any new model release, capability demonstration, or evaluation tweak before resolution could reorder the tightly packed middle tier.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market Opened: Sep 17, 2026, 8:11 PM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Dec 1, 2026Market Opened
Sep 17, 2026, 8:11 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".The even 50% odds across dozens of AI labs reflect intense uncertainty over which company will claim the third-highest ranking on LMArena’s text arena leaderboard with style control enabled by November 30. This setting adjusts for response length and formatting to isolate core capabilities, where narrow benchmark gaps separate contenders. Chinese labs such as Alibaba, DeepSeek, and ByteDance continue rapid iteration on models like Qwen, while U.S. players including Google Gemini, Anthropic Claude, Meta Llama, and OpenAI push scaling and enterprise features. Recent internal access grants and interface updates have not yet produced decisive leaderboard shifts. Any new model release, capability demonstration, or evaluation tweak before resolution could reorder the tightly packed middle tier.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$0End Date
Dec 1, 2026Market Opened
Sep 17, 2026, 8:11 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The even 50% odds across dozens of AI labs reflect intense uncertainty over which company will claim the third-highest ranking on LMArena’s text arena leaderboard with style control enabled by November 30. This setting adjusts for response length and formatting to isolate core capabilities, where narrow benchmark gaps separate contenders. Chinese labs such as Alibaba, DeepSeek, and ByteDance continue rapid iteration on models like Qwen, while U.S. players including Google Gemini, Anthropic Claude, Meta Llama, and OpenAI push scaling and enterprise features. Recent internal access grants and interface updates have not yet produced decisive leaderboard shifts. Any new model release, capability demonstration, or evaluation tweak before resolution could reorder the tightly packed middle tier.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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