Rapid model releases and leaderboard volatility on Code Arena WebDev, where community Elo ratings evaluate agentic frontend coding tasks, underpin the tight 35–50% implied probabilities across labs. OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra seized the top spot in early September 2026 with a 1,797 score, edging Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1, while open-weight models from Moonshot (Kimi K3), Z.ai (GLM-5), and Alibaba (Qwen) have narrowed gaps to roughly 11–150 Elo points through faster iteration and lower costs. Chinese labs’ gains in multi-file React workflows and tool use create a crowded middle tier, with Meta’s Muse Code agent and Google Gemini updates adding further contention. Continued releases before November resolution keep third-place positioning fluid as agentic capabilities and pricing shift trader consensus.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMoonshot 49%
Meta 49%
Anthropic 48%
SpaceXAI 36%
NEW
NEW
Nov 30, 2026
Moonshot
49%
Meta
49%
Anthropic
48%
SpaceXAI
36%
26%
Xiaomi
26%
Thinky
26%
Poolside
26%
Mistral
26%
DeepSeek
26%
Alibaba
25%
OpenAI
14%
ByteDance
14%
MiniMax
14%
Tencent
14%
Z.ai
14%
Moonshot 49%
Meta 49%
Anthropic 48%
SpaceXAI 36%
NEW
NEW
Nov 30, 2026
Moonshot
$0 Vol.
49%
Meta
$0 Vol.
49%
Anthropic
$0 Vol.
48%
SpaceXAI
$0 Vol.
36%
$0 Vol.
26%
Xiaomi
$0 Vol.
26%
Thinky
$0 Vol.
26%
Poolside
$0 Vol.
26%
Mistral
$0 Vol.
26%
DeepSeek
$0 Vol.
26%
Alibaba
$0 Vol.
25%
OpenAI
$0 Vol.
14%
ByteDance
$0 Vol.
14%
MiniMax
$0 Vol.
14%
Tencent
$0 Vol.
14%
Z.ai
$0 Vol.
14%
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard when the table under "Code Arena | WebDev" filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev?rankBy=labs (Overall) filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Rapid model releases and leaderboard volatility on Code Arena WebDev, where community Elo ratings evaluate agentic frontend coding tasks, underpin the tight 35–50% implied probabilities across labs. OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra seized the top spot in early September 2026 with a 1,797 score, edging Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1, while open-weight models from Moonshot (Kimi K3), Z.ai (GLM-5), and Alibaba (Qwen) have narrowed gaps to roughly 11–150 Elo points through faster iteration and lower costs. Chinese labs’ gains in multi-file React workflows and tool use create a crowded middle tier, with Meta’s Muse Code agent and Google Gemini updates adding further contention. Continued releases before November resolution keep third-place positioning fluid as agentic capabilities and pricing shift trader consensus.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard when the table under "Code Arena | WebDev" filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev?rankBy=labs (Overall) filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev?rankBy=labs (Overall) filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market Opened: Sep 17, 2026, 8:08 PM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Dec 1, 2026Market Opened
Sep 17, 2026, 8:08 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard when the table under "Code Arena | WebDev" filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev?rankBy=labs (Overall) filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Rapid model releases and leaderboard volatility on Code Arena WebDev, where community Elo ratings evaluate agentic frontend coding tasks, underpin the tight 35–50% implied probabilities across labs. OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra seized the top spot in early September 2026 with a 1,797 score, edging Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1, while open-weight models from Moonshot (Kimi K3), Z.ai (GLM-5), and Alibaba (Qwen) have narrowed gaps to roughly 11–150 Elo points through faster iteration and lower costs. Chinese labs’ gains in multi-file React workflows and tool use create a crowded middle tier, with Meta’s Muse Code agent and Google Gemini updates adding further contention. Continued releases before November resolution keep third-place positioning fluid as agentic capabilities and pricing shift trader consensus.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard when the table under "Code Arena | WebDev" filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev?rankBy=labs (Overall) filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev?rankBy=labs (Overall) filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$0End Date
Dec 1, 2026Market Opened
Sep 17, 2026, 8:08 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Rapid model releases and leaderboard volatility on Code Arena WebDev, where community Elo ratings evaluate agentic frontend coding tasks, underpin the tight 35–50% implied probabilities across labs. OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra seized the top spot in early September 2026 with a 1,797 score, edging Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1, while open-weight models from Moonshot (Kimi K3), Z.ai (GLM-5), and Alibaba (Qwen) have narrowed gaps to roughly 11–150 Elo points through faster iteration and lower costs. Chinese labs’ gains in multi-file React workflows and tool use create a crowded middle tier, with Meta’s Muse Code agent and Google Gemini updates adding further contention. Continued releases before November resolution keep third-place positioning fluid as agentic capabilities and pricing shift trader consensus.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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